The final days of the NFL regular season are upon as as Week 18 kicks off on Saturday. The later of the two games pits the Seattle Seahawks up against the San Francisco 49ers in the Bay Area with an NFC West title on the line. Both sides are riding winning streaks into this contest and have hopes of locking up the top seed in the conference for the postseason, so don’t expect any of the usual Week 18 weirdness in this premier matchup. Instead, we’re getting some high-stakes football from a pair of bitter rivals with everything to play for.
DraftKings Sportsbook offers several betting markets for this clash — this article will focus on the first touchdown scorer odds. Let’s break down a couple options and make a few picks.
Seahawks vs. 49ers First Touchdown Scorer Prop Bets
49ers RB Christian McCaffrey (+475)
I feel like a kid on the sidewalk at recess with how chalky this first pick is, but there’s no better option than Christian McCaffrey in this game. Full stop, end of discussion, conversation over. With 17 touchdowns on the campaign, an average over one score per game, the star halfback sits second in the league in total TDs behind only Jonathan Taylor (20). McCaffrey handles an immense workload with over 20 rush attempts in five straight contests and 17 or more carries in 12 of his 16 appearances on the year overall. His efficiency mark of 3.9 YPC is one of the lowest of his career, but the volume makes up for it and 10 of his touchdowns have come via the ground. Obviously, his talent doesn’t stop there since he remains one of the NFL’s premier receiving backs. McCaffrey’s target share of 24.5% places him first among all halfbacks and 21st among all players in the league, but that’s particularly relevant here since his red-zone target share sits at a team-high 29.6%.
Now, the Seahawks’ defense does prove quite problematic since they give up just 1.9 touchdowns per game, second-fewest of any team. Still, if the 49ers get the ball first, there’s a very good chance they’ll drive downfield and have a real shot at punching in the first TD of the night thanks to a standout offense that’s scoring 3.1 touchdowns per game (seventh-most). Whether on the ground or through the air, this attack runs through McCaffrey — don’t overthink this pick on Saturday.
Seahawks TE A.J. Barner (+1000)
For more of a long-shot option, there’s a tight end in this game who brings some serious potential. No, it’s not George Kittle, who’s still nursing an ankle injury after missing last week’s game. No, it’s not his backup Jake Tonges either, who posted quite the outing last Sunday against the Bears. Instead, we’re going with Seahawks tight end A.J. Barner, who’s making a case for a long-term future with his team thanks to an underrated campaign. In his second year as a pro, the 2024 fourth-round pick has caught 50 balls for 505 yards and six touchdowns while playing a very important role as a blocker in the run game as well. He’s played 79% of the team’s snaps, by far the highest of any player at his position on the roster, and his red-zone target share of 22.4% ranks second among all Seattle pass catchers.
With San Francisco allowing 29 passing touchdowns (fourth-most) and just 12 rushing touchdowns (fifth-fewest), it’s clear that teams can attack the depleted 49ers defense via the passing game. They’re giving up 2.7 touchdowns per game (20th) to begin with, so the Seahawks may not struggle much to find the end zone in this one, either. Barner could be an awesome sleeper pick for the first touchdown of this game at 10/1, especially with the added bonus of an occasional tush push attempt from the goal line.
