College basketball season is hitting its full stride with a loaded slate of games taking place Saturday. The Duke Blue Devils will look to add to their strong start to the season in a matchup with the Florida State Seminoles, tipping off at 3:45 p.m. ET.
Looking at the odds, Duke enters as a 16.5-point favorite on DraftKings Sportsbook with the game total set at 163.5 points. Florida State holds +1000 odds of pulling off the outright upset.
Duke at Florida State prediction, preview
The Duke Blue Devils are off to a 12-1 start to the season and are ranked sixth in the AP Poll. Their lone loss came in an 82-81 thriller against Texas Tech, but they bounced back with a win over Georgia Tech in their last game. Duke is 7-6 against the spread, and the game total has gone under in nine of its 13 games.
Star freshman Cameron Boozer headlines the production with an ACC-leading 23.5 points per game, along with 10.2 rebounds and 3.8 assists. Isaiah Evans adds 12.2 points and 3.5 rebounds of his own, while Patrick Ngongba is averaging 11.1 points and 6.7 rebounds. Caleb Foster is the team’s leading three-point shooter at 42.2%, and he averages 9.2 points, 3.4 rebounds and 2.8 assists. Cameron’s twin brother, Cayden Boozer, also adds 7.0 points and 3.2 assists, while Dame Sarr, Maliq Brown and Nikolas Khamenia round out most of the notable rotation.
As a team, the Blue Devils rank 41st in the country in scoring at 87.0 points per game. They rank 30th in offensive rating, 37th in team field-goal percentage, 146th in three-point percentage and 39th in assists per game. Defensively, opponents are scoring 63.8 points per game against Duke, which is the 19th-best rate in the country. The Blue Devils rank eighth in defensive rating, eighth in opponent field-goal percentage and 32nd in opponent three-point percentage allowed.
Florida State enters the matchup after a 7-7 start to the season. It is coming off a 13-point loss to North Carolina in the previous game and has dropped six of its last eight games. All of its victories have been in Quad 4 matchups to this point. The Seminoles are 7-7 against the spread, and the under has cashed in nine of their 14 games thus far.
There have been some growing pains in Luke Loucks’ first season as head coach and with the program’s stylistic identity changing. Florida State is averaging 83.6 points per game this year, which ranks 77th. It takes the sixth-most field-goal attempts in the country and second-most three-point attempts, but ranks 325th in field-goal percentage and 288th in three-point percentage. The Seminoles rank 186th in offensive rating, 170th in defensive rating and 303rd in opponent points allowed by giving up 78.4 points per contest.
Robert McCray V leads the team with 13.4 points per game and leads the ACC with 7.4 average assists. Chauncey Wiggins adds 12.3 points and 4.8 rebounds per game, while Lajae Jones and Kobe MaGee each also average double figures. Martin Somerville, who averages 9.4 points and 3.3 rebounds per game, is the only player on the roster shooting above 33.3% from the perimeter by connecting on 39.1% of his three-point attempts. Cam Miles, Alex Steen and AJ Swinton also play a role in the team’s rotation.
Duke at Florida State pick, best bet
Michigan and Arizona have set the bar high for the best team in the country, but Duke remains on the short list of teams fighting for this title. My lean is toward the Blue Devils covering the 16.5-point spread and the game total remaining under.
But my best bet is for Florida State’s team total to remain under 73.5. The Seminoles’ offense has been inconsistent regardless of their opponent, and their struggles to shoot from the perimeter will be a problem that plagues them all year. This Duke defense will also be the best they faced, with the exception of maybe Houston, which held Florida State to 67 points. The Seminoles were also held to 66 points against UNC in their previous game, 69 points against Dayton and 59 points against Texas A&M.
Duke is holding opponents to an average of 63.8 points per game this season. It ranks eighth in defensive rating and eighth in opponent field-goal percentage, which will provide a tough challenge against a Florida State team that ranks 325th in field-goal efficiency. Opponents have been held under 73.5 points in 11 of Duke’s 13 games thus far.
Expect points to be difficult to come by from start to finish as Duke keeps Florida State at arm’s length throughout this matchup. The Seminoles will do their best to push the pace and create chances, but give Duke’s defense a notable advantage in this matchup and expect Florida State to be held under 73.5 points.
