An ACC matchup between the Virginia Cavaliers and the NC State Wolfpack kicks off a loaded Saturday college basketball slate at 11:00 a.m. ET. Virginia is coming off a 95-85 loss in 3OT on December 31. Before that, the Cavaliers won six consecutive games. NC State is on a three-game winning streak, and recently beat Wake Forest 70-57 in their last game.
The Wolfpack are favorites at -3.5 with the over/under being set at 155.5 points on DraftKings Sportsbook. Check out my prediction for Virginia vs. NC State below.
Virginia vs. NC State (11:00 a.m. ET)
NC State has a 79-67 record against Virginia in their all-time series, but Virginia won the last meeting, 70-67. The Wolfpack have won the previous two games against the Cavaliers on their home floor. The advanced statistics have both teams ranked very closely, with KenPom placing NC State at No. 24 and Virginia at 26th.
The Wolfpack have displayed their elite defense lately, allowing 75 or fewer points in five of their previous six contests. NC State has five players averaging at least 10 points per game, with Darrion Williams and Paul McNeil Jr, both scoring 14.2 points per contest.
Virginia’s top two scorers this season, Thijs De Ridder and Malik Thomas, combined for 48 points against Virginia Tech on Wednesday. The Cavaliers only had one other player with 10-plus points against the Hokies. Virginia held Virginia Tech to 35 percent shooting from the field and 32 percent on three-pointers, but couldn’t contain Ben Hammond, who went off for 30 points. This was the first time Virginia allowed 95 points this season, and the second time it allowed 80 or more points.
From November 28 to December 22, Virginia allowed 73 or fewer points in all six games in that span. As the line suggests, this game could be close, with both teams being well-rounded. Both teams average 87 points per game, but NC State’s top scorers have been inconsistent. Williams has scored under 10 points in four of his last five games, with eight and one point in his previous two games. McNeil has scored 13, 19, and 47 points in his last three, but had seven or fewer in the four before that. If Virginia can limit NC State’s top two scorers, they will have an excellent chance to pull off the upset in this contest.
