The college basketball season is beginning to hit its full stride with a loaded slate of games across Saturday’s schedule. Tipping off at 1:00 p.m. ET, the Auburn Tigers will face the Georgia Bulldogs.
Looking at the odds, Georgia enters as a 4.5-point favorite on DraftKings Sportsbook, and the game total is set at 173.5.
Auburn vs. Georgia preview
The Auburn Tigers are off to a 9-4 start to the season in the first year under head coach Steven Pearl. Their four losses have all been teams ranked in the top-seven, with these coming to Michigan, Arizona, Purdue, and Houston. Auburn has one ranked victory thus far, which came over St. John’s. They are 8-5 against the spread, and the over has cashed in nine of their 13 games.
Keyshawn Hall headlines the production for the Tigers, averaging 20.1 points and 8.0 rebounds per game, while shooting 41.5% from beyond the three-point arc. After flirting with remaining in the NBA Draft, Tahaad Pettiford made his return to Auburn for the year. He is averaging 14.4 points and 2.9 assists, despite some shooting struggles. Kevin Overton and Elijah Freeman also average in double figures, while KeShawn Murphy, Sebastian Williams-Adams, Filip Jovic, and Kaden Magwood round out most of their notable rotation.
As a team, Auburn is averaging 85.9 points per game, which ranks 55th in the country. They rank 37th in offensive rating, 96th in team field-goal percentage, and 106th in three-point percentage. Defensively, the Tigers are allowing 76.8 points per game. This ranks 266th in opponents’ points allowed, and they also rank 266th in defensive rating. They rank in the bottom half of college basketball in both opponents’ field goal percentage and three-point percentage allowed.
The Georgia Bulldogs enter with a 12-1 record on the year, and sit at the top of the SEC. Their lone loss came against Clemson in a 97-94 overtime matchup. Georgia is not particularly battle-tested, with their most impressive win coming in a 19-point victory over Cincinnati, but you have to beat who is in front of you, and the Bulldogs have done exactly this. They are 6-7 against the spread, and the game total has gone over in eight of their 13 matchups.
While the strength of schedule is a notable asterisk, as they rank 285th in this category, Georgia leads the entire country in scoring by averaging 99.0 points per game. They have scored as many as 123 points in a matchup and reached triple digits in six games this season. The Bulldogs also rank 16th in offensive rating, 44th in team field-goal percentage, and 21st in three-point volume. They are shooting just 31.7% on these long-range attempts, which ranks 273rd among D1 teams, but they also get to the free-throw line at the third highest rate. Defensively, opponents are scoring 72.0 points per game against Georgia, which ranks 153rd. They rank 14th in defensive rating, 37th in opponents’ field goal percentage, and block the most shots per game in the country.
Jeremiah Wilkinson leads the team with 17.3 points per game. Blue Cain adds 15.7 points and 5.5 rebounds, while Marcus Millender is posting averages of 10.6 points and 4.2 assists. Justin Bailey is the team’s leading three-point shooter at 40.4%, while Somto Cyril sets the tone on the interior with averages of 9.6 points, 6.4 rebounds, and 2.6 blocks per game. Kanon Catchings, Jake Wilkins, Jordan Ross, and Kareem Stagg round out most of their notable rotation.
Auburn vs. Georgia pick, best bet
Both these teams like to play at a high pace and can put up points in a hurry. The game total is set at 173.5 to properly replicate this. My lean would be towards the under, with this feeling a tad high, but Auburn’s defense hasn’t inspired confidence to this point.
Instead, I am backing the Tigers to keep this game competitive and remain within the 4.5-point spread. Georgia has had some impressive performances already this season, but this will be their toughest test outside of the loss to Clemson. Auburn is currently the 34th-ranked team on KenPom. Clemson ranks 35th, and the next highest rated team that Georgia has faced was Cincinnati at 63, then Xavier at 103, and Florida State at 105. In contrast, Auburn is among the most battle-tested teams in the county.
Expect this level of experience to matter at this stage of the season and for Auburn to be braced for this matchup. While three of their four losses against the top programs came by 26+ points, they fell to Houston by just one point. Auburn may not have the look of a National Championship contender and true top-tier team, but I am not convinced Georgia has earned a place in this conversation either. This next stretch of their schedule is when we will find out exactly who Georgia is as a basketball team.
But looking at this matchup, expect Auburn to push the Georgia defense to a level they hardly have this year. Georgia Tech was able to score 87 against Georgia, Morehead State scored 81 against them, and Western Carolina tallied 82 points. The 29 points they limited Maryland Eastern Shore to has done some heavy lifting in their defensive metrics.
This feels like a true toss-up game, and I am viewing Auburn as live underdogs. Expect Tahaad Pettiford to be ready for a scoring breakout as his efficiency numbers begin to reduce to the average, and for the Tigers to be ready for an up-tempo challenge. There are more diverse ways that Auburn can win this matchup. If they throw Georgia off their up-tempo style, the Bulldogs could be in some trouble. For the sake of the article, I am locking in Auburn +4.5, but don’t be shocked if the Tigers pick up their second ranked victory of the matchup in upset fashion.
