As the calendar flips to 2026, the Africa Cup of Nations has reached its knockout stage. Eight of the 24 competing teams have been sent home, and after the next four games, just eight will remain in Morocco in the battle for continental supremacy.
This afternoon’s affair between Mali and Tunisia is arguably the most even match of the Round of 16, and it’s set to kick off at 2 p.m. ET (8 p.m. local) at Stade Mohamed V in Casablanca. The winner will go on to face either Senegal or Sudan in the quarterfinals.
The Maghrebi side is a +180 favorite to win at DraftKings Sportsbook, and the Sahelians are +200. The teams are +180 to draw in regular time.
Mali vs. Tunisia prediction, pick
Both teams finished second in the group stage behind a continental powerhouse. In Mali’s case, it was unlucky to be drawn into the same group as World No. 11 Morocco, but it played the Atlas Lions tough, managing to eke out a draw. In fact, all three of its games were draws, making it the only team in the competition without either a win or a loss. Tunisia managed one more point than Mali, though defeating lowly Uganda shouldn’t be much cause for pride, and going 3-0 down to Nigeria is a disappointing result, even if it managed to bring the score back to 3-2 before full time.
On paper, Tunisia — ranked 12 places ahead of Mali in the latest FIFA World Rankings — should be the favorite. Its attack has certainly been more impressive, as three different players — Nice defender Ali Abdi, Burnley midfielder Hannibal Mejbri, and Copenhagen striker Elias Achouri — all have two goal contributions and three other players have one. It has been one of the most clinical sides in the competition, ranking ninth in on-target percentage, and it’s produced the third-most shots on target. Defensively, though, it looks a far cry from the side that didn’t concede a single goal in CAF World Cup qualifying, as it has the competition’s lowest save percentage and has won the fewest tackles. It has also been tackled the most. Tunisia should consider itself lucky that Uganda and Tanzania had among the weakest attacks in the competition, or else its defensive stats might look even worse.
Tunisia’s defensive impotence could hardly stand in starker contrast to that of Mali, which has achieved results through the strength of its back line. So far this tournament, the West African side has limited opponents to the seventh-worst shot quality and the eighth-fewest shots on target per 90 minutes, and it ranks fourth in save percentage, first in tackles won, and third in interceptions. Mali’s physical defensive brand means it also leads with 10 yellow cards and one red card, leaving Amadou Haidara suspended for the Round of 16, but conceding just two goals more than justifies the indiscipline. Up front, Mali hasn’t been the most clinical side, scoring just twice and managing the seventh-fewest shots on target per 90 minutes, but Auxerre’s Lassine Sinayoko clearly has plenty of talent, having netted three goals in his last two games for Ligue 1 side Auxerre. Plus, despite not putting any of his seven shots on target so far, Mamadou Sangaré is a force to be reckoned with, as a regular starter for Ligue 1-leading Lens. Mali also has Nene Dorgeles, Transfermarkt’s most valuable player on either team.
All in all, Mali has probably been the more impressive side, given that it ended Morocco’s winning streak. Still, as strong as its back line has been, Tunisia’s attack is among the strongest in the competition, and it wouldn’t be hard to imagine it finding a way through at least once. I don’t think the Maghrebi side is capable of holding a lead, though: its back line is so weak and Aymen Dahmen has struggled so much between the sticks that even an out-of-form Mali attack should be able to find a way through. In regular time, this has 1-1 draw written all over it, and Mali should be favored to prevail in penalties.
