There are some great games on the NFL Week 18 slate as the regular season comes to a close. With plenty of ways to get in on the action on DraftKings Sportsbook, this is a look at my best bets for NFL Week 18.
NFL Week 18 Best Bets
Buccaneers -3 vs. Panthers (+100)
The Buccaneers and Panthers face off on Saturday afternoon with the NFC South on the line — sort of. If the Panthers win this game, they will clinch the division title. However, with a win over the Panthers, the Buccaneers will still need to rely on the Saints to beat the Falcons to win the division. If you are familiar with the NFC South, the easiest handicap would be saying that, of course, it will come down to that game on Sunday between two teams that can’t make the playoffs to decide who wins the division. However, for real football reasons, I also like the Buccaneers to cover the spread.
The Panthers have had a great season, but they are nowhere near elite. Carolina ranks 23rd in the NFL in defensive EPA/play and 26th in offensive EPA/play. The Buccaneers were just three-point favorites in Carolina two weeks ago. The Panthers ended up winning by three points, but the box score was nearly identical. The Buccaneers were in Panthers territory with a chance to tie or win the game before Baker Mayfield threw an interception on a miscommunication between him and Mike Evans. After that game, the Panthers were dominated at home by the Seahawks. There is no reason that power ratings should have shifted enough for the line to be the same in Tampa Bay as it was two weeks ago in Carolina.
The Buccaneers have failed to cover a remarkable eight straight games, making this the ultimate buy-low spot. This being a home game for Tampa Bay is huge. Under Bryce Young, the Panthers are 10-12 at home and 4-19 on the road. Baker Mayfield is also 3-0 at home against the Panthers in his career. While Tampa Bay has struggled mightily the past couple of months, it has more playmakers that could break the one big play needed to win the game. I’ll back the more experienced team, coaching staff, and quarterback to get it done in Week 18 and put the onus on the Saints and Falcons to decide the NFC South.
Six-Point Teaser: Vikings -2.5 & Bengals -1.5 (-152)
The Vikings should comfortably beat the Packers on Sunday, with Clayton Tune starting under center for Green Bay. Tune went 1-for-4 with an interception in his relief appearance against the Ravens last week. Brian Flores’ defense should dominate Tune and create some defensive scores and short fields for the Vikings. Minnesota has been playing well down the stretch, having won four straight games coming into Week 18. Max Brosmer is not a serious quarterback, but he has been taught to limit turnovers and put the ball in the hands of his playmakers. Green Bay has no incentive to win this game, so plenty of starters should rest for either the whole game or after a couple of drives. The Vikings’ defense should win the day and cover the 2.5-point teased spread.
The Bengals have a chance to blow out the Browns in this spot. It has been a season to forget for Cincinnati, but this could be a chance for Joe Burrow to exercise some demons. The Cleveland defense has not been the same on the road as it has been at home. They are allowing 18.1 PPG in Cleveland this season, compared to 28.3 PPG on the road this season. The Bengals should move it against the Browns and make Shedeur Sanders throw to keep up with the Bengals. Harold Fannin Jr. has been by far the Browns’ best offensive weapon this season, and he is out for this game, as are fellow tight end David Njoku and running back Quinshon Judkins. The Bengals have infinitely more offensive firepower and should win this game comfortably.
Moneyline Parlay: Falcons & Bills (-108)
The Falcons are taking on the Saints in what could be one of the most meaningful games in recent NFL history between two teams already eliminated from playoff contention. That is, if the Buccaneers beat the Panthers on Saturday. If the Panthers win, this game has no consequence outside of pride and draft positioning. However, as I’m picking Tampa Bay to win, I think that this game will have consequences. Atlanta should be motivated to win and finish tied for the best record in the NFC South, even if it doesn’t mean that they will win the division. This Atlanta defense is better than any unit that Tyler Shough has faced on his four-game winning streak coming into this week. Bijan Robinson is by far the best player on the field and should make the explosive plays to win the game for the Falcons.
The Bills are facing the Jets in Week 18. Josh Allen will start this game to continue his incredible starting streak, but he could only take one snap. There is also a chance that Allen plays a series to try to reach 40 total touchdowns on the season. Allen is one rushing or passing score away from his sixth 40-touchdown season, which would tie Aaron Rodgers for the most in NFL history. However, even if Allen plays just one snap or one drive, Mitchell Trubisky should run this offense well against the Jets. New York has the worst defense in the NFL by EPA/play since Week 11. The Bills should be able to run all over the Jets and force Brady Cook to try to keep up. Statistically, Cook is the worst quarterback in NFL history. The Jets have lost four straight games, each by 23 or more points. Even with their JV team, the Bills should win this game comfortably.
