In the top-heavy Big Ten, every week presents a new challenge. That’s the case for #2 Michigan, arguably the most dangerous team in all of college basketball. The Wolverines have gotten off to a pristine 12-0 start, poised to make a deep March Madness run. They’ll hope to stay undefeated on Friday against conference foe #24 USC. The Trojans have only lost once, but have yet to face elite competition. Tonight’s contest will be an intriguing litmus test for the visitors.
Which team has the edge going into this Big Ten showdown? Michigan enters this evening as 21.5-point favorites (-112) over Southern California. The total is set at 172.5 points on DraftKings Sportsbook. Here’s a college basketball pick, preview and prediction for Friday’s game between the Trojans and the Wolverines.
USC vs. Michigan prediction, preview
Michigan, under head coach Dusty May, has always dominated down low. That’s no different this season with star center Yaxel Lendeborg anchoring the paint. This season, the junior is averaging 15.2 points, 7.2 rebounds and 3.6 assists while shooting 59% from the field. However, it’s not as if this is a one-man show. Lendebrog is joined by Morez Johnson Jr. and Aday Mara, forming a dynamic big man trio. It’s no coincidence that the Wolverines lead the Big Ten with 45.0 rebounds per game.
In the backcourt, Michigan has plenty of experience with veterans Roddy Gayle and Elliot Cadeau. In addition, freshman Trey McKenny (10.8 PPG) has made quite the first impression. As a result, UM ranks second in the nation in points (96.8) and assists (21.6) per game. On the other end of the floor, the Wolverines own college basketball’s second-best defensive rating (87.0). Add it all up, and you have the sport’s team to beat per KenPom’s adjusted efficiency margin.
USC, while not as well-rounded as Michigan, has what it takes to keep pace. The Trojans are averaging 89.4 points per game, 24th-best in the nation. Leading the charge is Chad Baker-Mazara, last seen helping Auburn reach the Final Four. It’s been a breakout campaign for the guard, who leads the team in scoring (21.0 PPG). He’s joined by fellow guard Rodney Rice, currently putting up 20.1 points and 6.0 assists per game. Down low, athletic freak Ezra Ausar has impressed as well. The 6’9″ forward has put up 17.1 points, 5.8 rebounds and 1.8 assists while shooting 64% from the field.
The knock on the Trojans comes on defense; they rank 107th in college basketball with a 100.2 defensive rating. Five different schools have surpassed 80+ points vs. USC, including mid-majors Manhattan and Troy. That’s a scary thought heading into a matchup with Michigan’s unstoppable offense. Southern Cal isn’t small by any means, with three different 6’9″ players in the frontcourt. However, this group is at a clear size disadvantage compared to the giants of Ann Arbor.
USC vs. Michigan pick, best bet
Michigan hasn’t just won games; it’s been nothing short of dominant. UM’s 30.3 average scoring margin ranks as the top mark in all of college basketball. Therefore, Friday’s massive 21.5-point line makes sense, even against a decent USC squad. Still, it’s difficult to expect a Wolverines blowout against a conference opponent. Baker-Mazara and Rice, if nothing else, can keep this from getting ugly. The Trojans have enough firepower to hang around in this one.
