The Texas State Bobcats host the Rice Owls on Friday, January 2 at 1:00 p.m. ET. Below, our simulation breaks down the latest odds, betting splits, key stats, and the best ways to bet this matchup on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Game Odds on DraftKings Sportsbook
Spread: Texas State -17.5 (-108) | Rice +17.5 (-112)
Moneyline: Texas State -800 | Rice +550
Total: 55.5 (Over -108 / Under -112)
Betting Splits for Texas State vs. Rice
- Spread splits: 62% of bets / 80% of handle on Texas State -17.5
- Moneyline splits: 93% of bets / 80% of handle on Texas State -800
- Total splits: 53% of bets / 56% of handle on Under 55.5
The biggest signal in the splits is on the spread, where Texas State is not only the more popular side, but also drawing a larger share of the money (handle) than tickets.
Stats to Know
- Texas State ATS (2025): 4-8 ATS (avg cover margin: -0.33)
- Rice ATS (2025): 5-7 ATS (avg cover margin: -5.75)
- Texas State offense profile: 0.3121 PPA; 45.77% success rate; 1.3467 explosiveness; 4.592 points per opportunity
- Rice offense profile: 0.0577 PPA; 36.97% success rate; 1.1772 explosiveness; 3.333 points per opportunity
- Texas State defense profile: 0.1850 PPA allowed; 42.73% success rate allowed; 0.146 havoc
- Rice defense profile: 0.2352 PPA allowed; 40.91% success rate allowed; 1.4976 explosiveness allowed
Key Stats to Know
- Texas State (offense): Balanced profile with a 0.3121 PPA and 4.592 points per opportunity, plus better efficiency on passing downs (0.5549 PPA) than standard downs (0.2093 PPA).
- Rice (offense): Low overall efficiency (0.0577 PPA) and a 21.54% success rate on passing downs, which can create long-yardage drives against better athletes.
- Rice (defense): Vulnerable to explosive plays (1.4976 explosiveness allowed) and is especially leaky on passing downs (0.4462 PPA allowed; 2.3865 explosiveness allowed).
- Texas State (defense): Generates disruption (0.146 havoc) and is strongest on standard downs (0.1023 PPA allowed).
How to Bet Texas State vs. Rice
- Spread angle: Texas State is taking 62% of spread tickets, but 80% of spread handle on -17.5, suggesting larger wagers are siding with the favorite.
- Total angle: The Under 55.5 is slightly more popular in both bets (53%) and handle (56%), a mild lean toward a lower-scoring script.
- Efficiency mismatch: Texas State’s offense (0.3121 PPA) is far more efficient than Rice’s (0.0577 PPA), and Rice’s passing-down offense metrics are a concern if they fall behind early.
- Big-play risk for Rice: Rice’s defense allows a higher explosiveness rate (1.4976), which can be problematic against a favored team expected to control the game state.
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Prediction & Best Bets
Projected final score: Texas State 38, Rice 20
Moneyline: Texas State
Spread: Rice +17.5
Total: Over 55.5
After reviewing the projections and models from our simulation, the DKN team believes Texas State is the more likely winner; however, the number is large enough to create a backdoor-cover risk on -17.5. With Rice’s defense showing a tendency to allow explosive plays and Texas State’s efficiency edge, the game can still get into the high 50s even if the underdog is mostly scoring late or in catch-up mode.