The Texas State Bobcats take on the Rice Owls in the Armed Forces Bowl on Friday afternoon. The game kicks off at 1 p.m. ET in Fort Worth, Texas.
The Bobcats are listed as 16.5-point favorites on DraftKings Sportsbook, with the total set at O/U 55.5 points. Below is my full preview, prediction, and best bet for the Armed Forces Bowl.
Texas State Preview
It was a bit of an unlucky season for Texas State. G.J. Kinne has been building a nice program in San Marcos, winning eight games in each of his first two seasons helming the Bobcats. They were thought to be a dark horse to make the College Football Playoff out of the Group of Five this season, but things just didn’t go their way.
The Bobcats won their final three contests to qualify for a bowl game, but it was a major step back from the last two seasons. Texas State has a great offense, led by quarterback Brad Jackson. Their defense failed to match the same level of intensity, though, which ultimately cost them this season.
Rice Preview
Rice is one of the worst teams to make a bowl game in recent memory. The Owls only won five games this season, but but they clinched a bowl game by default after a handful of teams declined a bid.
Of those five Rice wins, only two came in conference play, over UAB and Charlotte — two horrific teams. The Owls rank 130th in the nation in net EPA/play, making them a bottom-ten team in the nation.
To make matters worse, Rice will be without its starting quarterback, Chase Jenkins, who entered the transfer portal. Freshman Patrick Crayton Jr. will likely start under center for the Owls. He has six career pass attempts for three yards and an interception.
Texas State vs. Rice pick, best bet
My best bet for this game is the Texas State team total over 35.5 points. G.J. Kinne’s squad has been frustrated all season by close losses and defensive mishaps. This bowl game is a chance for the squad to take out all of its anger on a vastly inferior opponent.
Rice had no business being in this game with a somewhat competent quarterback. With the inexperienced Crayton at the helm, this should turn into a beatdown of epic proportions.
The Bobcats should score at will against a Rice defense that ranks 122nd in the nation in defensive EPA/play. There is also a good chance that Rice turns the ball over a couple of times and sets up short fields, or even defensive scores for the Bobcats.
The Texas State offense, which ranks 28th in the nation in offensive EPA/play, should win the day and name the score.
