On the opening day of the 2025-26 season, Philadelphia 76ers rookie VJ Edgecombe captivated NBA fans with a 34-point performance, the highest-scoring NBA debut since Wilt Chamberlain in 1959. The fact that, two and a half months later, Edgecombe arguably isn’t even playing like a top three rookie is a testament to the strength and depth of the class.
One of the rookies who’s been unequivocally better than Edgecombe is first overall pick Cooper Flagg. In December, the Dallas Mavericks wunderkind averaged 23.5 points, 6.2 rebounds, 4.8 assists, 1.0 steals, and 1.2 blocks per game; no player was better in all five statistical categories in the same span.
Tonight, Flagg and Edgecombe will meet for the second time in their careers when the Mavericks host the 76ers for an 8:30 p.m. ET clash. Last time, Edgecombe out-played Flagg and Philadelphia emerged victorious, so Flagg will surely be seeking his revenge tonight.
Dallas has a completely clean injury report besides the players dealing with long-term injuries, while the 76ers have their full slate as well (Joel Embiid is probable).
Philadelphia is a 2.5-point favorite at DraftKings Sportsbook (-135 Moneyline), with the point total set to 230.5. The Mavericks are +114 on the Moneyline. Below, I’ll break down tonight’s battle of highly-touted rookies and offer my prediction.
Philadelphia 76ers at Dallas Mavericks preview, prediction
Despite Anthony Davis still being on the roster for now, Dallas is clearly Flagg’s team, and his performance has been enough to lead the Mavericks to wins over the last month. In December, Dallas went a respectable 6-7, and it hasn’t lost a game at the American Airlines Center since November 22. Flagg hasn’t been alone in his effort: Davis averaged 23.2 points and 12.8 rebounds per game in his first nine games of the month before sustaining an adductor injury that he’s expected to return from tonight, and young point guards Ryan Nembhard and Brandon Williams have picked up some of the slack as well. The future is bright for the Mavericks.
After he sat out for most of November, the 76ers got a fairly healthy month out of Embiid, as he played in seven of the team’s 12 games and averaged 25.9 points, 8.1 rebounds, and 3.1 assists per game despite a balky jumper, helping Philadelphia go 3-4 in his games. Tyrese Maxey has remained as consistent as ever, delivering 30-point performances regularly while canning two-fifths of his three-pointers, and even Paul George had a completely healthy (though fairly inefficient) month. Individually, the 76ers have had six different players averaging at least 14 points per game, but they haven’t yet had a game in which all six have been healthy.
76ers at Mavericks pick, best bet
Finishing well will be a key tonight for Philadelphia, given Dallas’ propensity to let opponents get downhill. Over the course of December, the Mavericks allowed the second-most shots per game inside the restricted area but slightly mitigated the damage because they limited opponents to the seventh-lowest percentage. That’s an area in which the 76ers could improve: while they’ve attempted the league’s fourth-most restricted-area tries, they’ve been the league’s least accurate team on such shots, in part because Edgecombe has been the least efficient among the 79 players to attempt at least four shots per game at the rim. Defensively, Philadelphia has also allowed a lot of shots at the rim — the league’s ninth-most in December — while Dallas has gotten nearly as good of a job getting downhill and a much better job finishing than the 76ers.
Neither team is great at rebounding: while Philadelphia ranked sixth in total rebounds throughout December, that’s in large part a result of its finishing woes, as the teams had nearly identical rebounding percentages. As a result of their more numerous opportunities, the 76ers ranked fourth in second-chance points per game throughout December while the Mavericks ranked 29th, and they were also better at denying second-chance opportunities to opponents. However, Dallas can make some of that margin up in transition, as it has been one of the league’s best fast-break teams on both sides of the ball. Neither team has been particularly turnover- or foul-prone, though Philadelphia has been much better at producing steals and slightly better at drawing contact.
The Mavericks’ defensive advantage has dissipated somewhat over the last month, in part because opponents’ shot diet has improved: while they had allowed among the fewest wide-open threes per game in October and November, they gave up the seventh-most in December. By contrast, the 76ers allowed an average number of uncontested looks and benefited slightly from inaccurate opponent shooting. Philadelphia has also done a better job generating wide-open triples — though neither team has been great — and has expectedly knocked such shots down at a much higher clip. That shooting and defensive disparity should be somewhat sustainable, given each team’s personnel, though Klay Thompson (33.3% on wide-open threes) is probably due for some positive regression.
All in all, while each team has its advantages and disadvantages, not all aspects of basketball are created equal. Although the 76ers have a slight shooting and rebounding edge, slashing is a bigger part of each team’s game than shooting is, and Dallas has a sizable advantage there because of Philadelphia’s poor finishing. Add that to the fact that the Mavericks have had such a strong home record as of late, and I’ll take them to narrowly pull off the upset.
