These are my picks to win every Week 18 NFL game straight-up, tiered by confidence level and ranked within each tier.
You can bet on any of these games on DraftKings Sportsbook.
NFL Week 18 Confidence Picks
High Confidence
Jaguars over Titans
It has been a special season in Jacksonville. In Liam Coen’s first season as head coach, the Jaguars have clinched the AFC South and will host a playoff game. Jacksonville is currently sitting at the No. 3 seed, but it could jump both the Patriots and Broncos with a win and losses from those teams. With the No. 1 seed on the table, the Jaguars have no choice but to give a maximum effort in this game. While it’s unlikely that both of those teams lose, the Jaguars owe themselves the chance to secure that spot. They eviscerated the Titans 25-3 in the first matchup between these teams and this week’s result should be similar.
Broncos over Chargers
The Broncos are one win away from clinching the No. 1 seed in the AFC. That bye week could do Denver a lot of good, so they would love to get that spot and take the rest. Denver got some major help from Jim Harbaugh, as the Chargers announced that Justin Herbert will be inactive for this game. The Chargers are clearly content with letting the chips fall where they may in the AFC Wild Card picture, so their motivation levels are likely low in this game. The Broncos have only lost one home game all season, so with everything on the line against a backup quarterback, Denver should handle business.
Patriots over Dolphins
The Patriots are taking on the Dolphins in the final week of the regular season. The Patriots can still clinch the No. 1 seed with a win and a Broncos loss, so they have everything to play for here. New England has so much to play for and should take care of business at home against the Dolphins. The Patriots got their first win of the regular season in Week 2 against Miami, so it’s only fitting that they end the regular season with a win over Miami as well.
Texans over Colts
The Texans should be highly motivated to beat the Colts. Houston controls its own path to the No. 5 seed and still has a chance to win the division. A win and a Jaguars loss would mean a division title for Houston. While it’s highly unlikely that the Jaguars lose, the Texans at least need to take care of their end of the bargain. Even if the Jaguars win, getting the No. 5 seed could be a big advantage. That would mean that they get to take on the AFC North champion in the first round, rather than the Jaguars or Patriots. The Steelers would be the clear worst division winner if they were that team, and with Lamar Jackson’s health in question, the Ravens could be a good option as well. Against rookie quarterback Riley Leonard, the Texans’ defense should win the day.
Bills over Jets
The Bills have been unclear about which starters will be playing and how much. Buffalo could improve its seeding among the Wild Card group, but it is out of the division race. Sean McDermott is confident in his team to beat anybody in the postseason, so the Bills will be unlikely to play their starters the whole game. However, the Bills should still beat a horrific Jets team. New York has lost four straight games, all by at least 23 points. This team is nowhere near competitive, and Mitchell Trubisky should comfortably run the Bills’ offense well enough to win.
Medium Confidence
Bengals over Browns
The Bengals and Browns face off in one of the only games this week with no playoff teams. Both teams should go out there and try to win the game, but it’s hard to be too confident when neither team has any real motivation. That being said, if it’s a maximum effort from both teams, the Bengals should get the win at home. The Cleveland defense has not been as good away from home, so Joe Burrow should put up enough points to get the win here.
Vikings over Packers
The Packers are resting their starters this week, as they are locked into the 7-seed in the NFC playoffs. The biggest question for Green Bay is at quarterback, where both Jordan Love and Malik Willis have been dealing with injuries. Matt LaFleur likely wants to keep his quarterbacks healthy, and could turn to Desmond Ridder to start this game, who the Packers just signed. The Vikings have been quietly playing very well, winning four straight games coming into this week. The Minnesota defense should dominate if the Packers start Ridder or Clayton Tune, which seems to be the most likely outcome.
Rams over Cardinals
The Rams are out of reach for the NFC West, so they might not be all-in for this game. Otherwise, the Rams would be much higher up on this list. If the Rams give maximum effort against the Cardinals, they should dominate, just as they did 45-17 when these teams faced off earlier this season. Matthew Stafford is still fighting to win the NFL MVP and could look to pad his stats in this game. The Rams should get the win, despite the lack of consequences.
Chiefs over Raiders
The Chiefs are playing in Week 18 without Patrick Mahomes. That is a familiar feeling for Kansas City, but for a much different reason. Unlike last season, when Mahomes rested Week 18 because the Chiefs had already secured the No. 1 seed, Mahomes is out with an ACL injury and the Chiefs are out of the playoffs. Chris Oladokun will be starting for the Chiefs once again. Despite the Chiefs’ season being over, they should beat this dreadful Raiders squad. Las Vegas just got blown out by the Giants last week, and should lose to the Chiefs as well.
Eagles over Commanders
The Eagles have locked up the NFC East, and while they could shift between the No. 2 and No. 3 seed, they are likely resting starters in this game. It is unconfirmed which starters will be out, but the team did say some will rest and some will be limited, meaning they will likely only play one quarter or one half. Despite that fact, the Eagles should get a win against the Josh Johnson-led Commanders.
Cowboys over Giants
This is another one of the few games where both teams are out of the playoff picture. It has been a rough season for the Giants, but they showed that they are still playing hard with a dominant win over the Raiders last week. The Cowboys’ offense is the best unit on the field and should win the day, however. They should score enough to force the Giants to try to play catch-up, which could lead to mistakes from Jaxson Dart.
Coin-Flip Games
Falcons over Saints
The Falcons have been playing great football the past few weeks. The defense is one of the most underrated units in the league, and Bijan Robinson has been arguably the best running back in the NFL this season. Atlanta is out of the playoff picture, but has a chance to play spoiler if the Buccaneers were to win against the Panthers. While they can’t make the playoffs, even playing a role in the playoff picture in Week 18 could add some motivation. The Falcons handily beat the Saints in the first matchup and should be able to win again this time around.
Ravens over Steelers
The Ravens and Steelers face off in the final game of the regular season, with the AFC North on the line. It appears that Lamar Jackson will be healthy for this game. With Jackson back on the field, it’s hard to go against the Ravens in this spot. Baltimore has been on the brink of elimination several times this season, but here they are in Week 18, controlling their own path to a division title. The Ravens’ defense has been playing better in the second half of the season and should slow down a Steelers offense that lacks explosivity, especially without DK Metcalf. The duo of Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry should make the necessary plays to win this game.
Seahawks over 49ers
The Seahawks and 49ers are playing for the NFC West title on Saturday night. These are two fantastic teams, but the Seahawks are more well-rounded. These are two of the most explosive offenses in the NFL, but Seattle is significantly better defensively. Seattle ranks second in the NFL in defensive EPA/play, while the 49ers rank 24th. The Seahawks’ defense should be the difference, coming up with a couple of key stops to secure the victory.
Panthers over Buccaneers
The other major game of the weekend is the Panthers and Buccaneers battling for the NFC South. Tampa Bay has the important home-field advantage, but the Panthers have undoubtedly been the better team the past few weeks. Baker Mayfield has been really poor the past few weeks, and Tampa Bay ranks 28th in the NFL in defensive EPA/play since Week 10. The Panthers look like the better team on both sides of the ball at the moment, and this game could end up being the passing of the torch in the NFC South after years of dominance from Tampa Bay.
Lions over Bears
The Bears have little to play for in this game. They could swap seeds with the Eagles if they lose and the Eagles win. However, with the NFC North locked up, the Bears are likely quite comfortable with their position in either the two or three seed. While it has been a massively disappointing season for the Lions, it’s unlikely that you will ever see Dan Campbell’s group not give 100% effort. The Lions should look to end the season on a positive note and try to take down the Bears. This is a true coinflip game, but given the small chance that the Bears rest starters at some point in this game, I’ll take the Lions.
