The Detroit Pistons are hosting the Miami Heat tonight at 7:00 p.m. ET. Throughout this season, the Pistons have been one of the top stories in the NBA, with the best record in the Eastern Conference (25-8). The Pistons beat the Heat 138-135 on November 29 in their lone matchup this season. Detroit has won four consecutive games against Miami, but before that, the Heat were riding a seven-game winning streak against the Pistons.
On DraftKings Sportsbook, the Pistons are the favorites at -4.5, with the Heat at +164 on the moneyline. Below, I preview tonight’s game between the Pistons and the Heat and give my prediction.
Heat vs. Pistons preview, prediction
After starting the season 2-2, the Pistons won 13 straight games from October 29 to November 24. The Pistons have displayed an elite defense, allowing only 112.7 points per contest, the fourth-fewest in the NBA. Detroit also has the second-best defensive rating (110.7). The Pistons have the fifth-best net rating in the NBA (6.6), behind only the Oklahoma City Thunder (14.2), Houston Rockets (8.6), Denver Nuggets (7.1), and Boston Celtics (6.7).
A big reason for the Pistons’ emergence this season has been their elite depth and improvement from their younger players. Cade Cunningham is averaging 26.5 points, 9.7 assists, 6.2 rebounds, and 1.5 steals per contest, all of which are more than last season. Detroit’s starting center, Jalen Duren, has taken the most significant jump, going from averaging 11.8 points and 10.3 rebounds last season to 18.1 points and 10.8 boards per game this year. But that’s not all, as the Pistons have six players averaging double-digit points per game.
Meanwhile, the Miami Heat are 18-15 but are currently riding a three-game winning streak. With Miami’s best two players, Bam Adebayo and Tyler Herro, missing time this season, multiple players have stepped up. Veteran guard Norman Powell is averaging a career high of 23.8 points. Former first-round pick, Jaime Jaquez Jr., went from 8.6 to 16.4 points per contest this season. Also, second-year big man Kel’El Ware averages 12.6 points and 10.6 boards.
Heat vs. Pistons, best bet
Although the Heat are on a winning streak, context matters. Miami beat the 6-28 Indiana Pacers and the depleted Denver Nuggets in their previous two games. The Heat have lost their last five games against teams over .500. Miami also allows 117.5 points per game, the 12th most in the NBA. That shouldn’t bode well against the Pistons, who have been dominant at home with a 13-2 record. The Pistons’ last eight victories have come by at least five points. This season, 20 of Detroit’s 25 wins have come by five or more points.
