The Granddaddy Of Them All kicks off the New Year in style on Thursday. This year’s edition of the Rose Bowl offers up an interesting twist on David vs. Goliath. #1 Indiana has enjoyed a miraculous season, capped off with a Big Ten championship over Ohio State. Now, the Hoosiers will hope to keep their championship hopes alive against college football royalty. #9 Alabama entered the postseason bracket with some controversy, but silenced the doubters with a 34-24 win over Oklahoma. Can the Crimson Tide keep up their momentum against a new-school powerhouse?
Indiana enters Thursday’s contest as seven-point favorites (-112) over Alabama, with the over/under set at 47.5 points on DraftKings Sportsbook. The Hoosiers are favored at -245 on the moneyline.
Alabama vs. Indiana prediction, preview
It’s been nothing short of a meteoric rise for IU over the past two seasons. Following last season’s CFP berth, head coach Curt Cignetti has taken this program to new heights in 2025. That includes bringing in Heisman trophy winner Fernando Mendoza at quarterback. Through 13 games, the junior has thrown for 2,980 yards and 33 touchdowns while giving up just six interceptions. On the ground, he chipped in with 240 yards and six additional scores.
Granted, the Hoosiers are more than just a star quarterback. After all, they managed to defeat Ohio State despite a mediocre performance from Mendoza. Running backs Roman Hemby and Kaelon Black combined for 1,717 rushing yards and 13 touchdowns. Wideouts Omar Cooper Jr. and Elijah Sarratt tallied a whopping total of 25 touchdowns. In addition, fellow pass catcher Charlie Becker came on strong during the last quarter of the season. With so much firepower, it’s almost impossible for opposing defenses to hone in on just a few players.
Unlike Indiana, the Crimson Tide are heavily dependent on their star signal caller. Ty Simpson put up Heisman-caliber numbers as well, this season. Over 14 appearances, he’s tallied 3,500 passing yards and 28 touchdowns while surrendering only five interceptions. Now, the junior will face arguably his toughest test of the season against a formidable secondary. The Hoosiers have surrendered 6.1 yards per pass attempt, fifth-fewest in the Big Ten. However, IU will be without standout defensive lineman Stephen Daley in this one. The senior, who suffered a season-ending knee injury vs. OSU, leads the team with 19.0 tackles for loss.
Typically, Daley would play a key role for one of the nation’s premier run defenses. Indiana has held opponents to a Big Ten-leading 77.6 rushing yards per game. There’s a good chance that success continues today vs. Bama. The Tide have had major issues on the ground, ranging from injuries to utter domination up front. Look no further than their negative three rushing yards during the SEC Championship vs. Georgia. Last week vs. the Sooners, they delivered an improved, but still terrible, 22-yard output. Neither Daniel Hill or Jam Miller has impressed much, although the former did find the end zone vs. Oklahoma.
Alabama vs. Indiana pick, best bet
The Crimson Tide don’t need to dominate on the ground this afternoon. However, they do need to keep Indiana’s tenacious defense guessing. If every play becomes a pass, it’ll be that much easier to stop Alabama. On the flip side, Mendoza has looked somewhat shaky since the start of November. A month of rest should help, but the star passer has shown he isn’t infallible. The Tide have been stingy against the pass, even while missing some key contributors. Star defensive lineman LT Overton will be returning from injury this week, a major development for the underdogs. With respect to the Hoosiers, seven points just feels like too much against a talented opponent. Expect scoring to be limited on Thursday in a tense Rose Bowl clash.
