The Raptors are hosting the Nuggets on Wednesday. On DraftKings Sportsbook, Toronto is favored by 6.5 points, and this game carries a total of O/U 228.5 points.
Below, I break down the matchup and provide a pick for the game.
Raptors vs. Nuggets preview, prediction
The Raptors have been a pleasant surprise this season, sitting fourth in the Eastern Conference at 20-14 and ranking 14th in net rating. Toronto has won three of its last four entering tonight, with these three victories coming against the Heat, Warriors and Magic.
Jakob Poeltl (back) will be out tonight, but RJ Barrett (knee) is back in action, so the Raptors will have their top three scorers of Scottie Barnes, Brandon Ingram and Barrett active, who are all averaging over 18 PPG this season. When this trio has played this season, Toronto is 13-5, and the club is averaging 122.1 PPG, which is a huge upgrade from the Raptors’ 114.1 PPG average for the season, which ranks 23rd in the league.
Toronto should be much more potent on offense than usual tonight, and this is an outstanding spot for the Raptors, with an extremely depleted Nuggets team on the other side. Denver is 22-10 and ranks third in net rating this season, but Nikola Jokic hyperextended his knee this past Monday night vs. the Heat, and the three-time MVP will be sidelined for at least four weeks.
Jokic was only available for 19 minutes on Monday before going down with the injury, and after he exited, Miami beat Denver 147-123. Jokic has been unstoppable this season, averaging a triple-double of 29.6 points, 12.2 rebounds and 11.0 assists per game, and the Nuggets’ splits without the big man have been staggering. With Jokic on the floor, Denver owns a 12.3 net rating, but with him off, their net rating plummets to -6.3.
Jokic truly is the most valuable player in the NBA, and in the 15 games he has missed over the last three seasons, the Nuggets are just 6-9. Denver is a completely different team with Jokic out of the picture, and to put more gas on the fire, Aaron Gordon (hamstring), Christian Braun (ankle) and Cameron Johnson (knee) all remain sidelined without timetables for a return.
For tonight, the Nuggets are likely to run out a starting lineup for Jamal Murray, Tim Hardaway Jr., Spencer Jones, Peyton Watson and Jonas Valanciunas. While Murray is an excellent player who has been great this season, averaging a career-high 25.2 PPG, there is only so much he can do, and Denver is likely to tumble down the standings over the next few weeks.
Raptors vs. Nuggets pick, best bet
While the Nuggets are very understaffed and likely to be a mess tonight, we are likely to see one of the best versions of the Raptors, with their big three of Barnes, Ingram and Barrett all healthy.
Defeating this Denver team should be a breeze for Toronto tonight, and the club is a great bet to cover this 6.5-point spread.
