The Texas Longhorns host the Michigan Wolverines on Wednesday, December 31 at 3:00 p.m. ET. Below, our simulation breaks down the latest odds, betting splits, key stats and the best ways to bet this matchup on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Game Odds on DraftKings Sportsbook
Spread: Texas -7 (-115) | Michigan +7 (-105)
Moneyline: Texas -285 | Michigan +230
Total: 48.5 (Over -108 / Under -112)
Betting Splits for Texas vs. Michigan
- Spread splits: 70% of bets / 79% of handle on Texas -7
- Moneyline splits: 85% of bets / 74% of handle on Texas
- Total splits: 55% of bets / 57% of handle on Under 48.5
The market has Texas drawing heavy public support on both Moneyline and the spread, while the total is slightly tilted to the Under 48.5 by both tickets and handle.
Stats to Know (2025)
- Against the spread (ATS): Texas 4-8 ATS (avg cover margin -2.83); Michigan 4-8 ATS (avg cover margin -1.92)
- Offensive efficiency (PPA): Texas 0.1613 offense PPA vs Michigan 0.2130 offense PPA
- Defensive efficiency (PPA allowed): Texas 0.1016 defense PPA allowed; Michigan 0.0904 defense PPA allowed
- Success rate (offense): Texas 0.3987; Michigan 0.4649
- Success rate (defense): Texas 0.3953; Michigan 0.4133
- Explosiveness (offense): Texas 1.3484; Michigan 1.1333
- Explosiveness (defense): Texas 1.1803; Michigan 1.0908
- Rushing profile: Michigan leans run-heavy (rushing plays rate 0.5779) with strong rushing efficiency (rushing PPA 0.2336); Texas is more balanced (rushing plays rate 0.4632, passing plays rate 0.5187)
- Passing profile: Texas has higher passing explosiveness (1.7578) than Michigan (1.4416), which matters if Texas can create chunk plays against a solid Michigan defense (passing plays PPA allowed 0.2032)
- Havoc: Texas defense havoc rate 0.179 vs Michigan offense havoc allowed 0.115 (Michigan generally protects possessions well); Michigan defense havoc rate 0.168 vs Texas offense havoc allowed 0.158
How to Bet Texas vs. Michigan
- Be cautious laying points with Texas: Texas is 4-8 ATS in 2025, and the spread is seeing a public-heavy lean (70% of bets and 79% of handle on Texas -7).
- Michigan’s profile can shorten the game: Michigan’s run rate (0.5779) plus a strong defensive PPA allowed (0.0904) is a combination that can keep the score within one possession.
- Total market lean: Both tickets and handle slightly favor the Under 48.5 (55% / 57%), consistent with two defenses allowing low PPA.
- Texas path to separation: Texas’ passing-downs PPA (0.3879) and passing explosiveness (1.7578) are the clearest routes to building a margin, but that typically requires creating chunk plays and/or short fields.
Players to Watch (Most-Bet Props)
- Ryan Wingo – Anytime TD (-130): Listed as a top-favorite TD scorer prop and a common SGP building block.
- Arch Manning – Anytime TD (-110): A highly bettable price in the Anytime TD market, especially for SGPs tied to Texas scoring.
- Jordan Marshall – Anytime TD (-110): One of Michigan’s shortest Anytime TD prices, signaling a central role near the goal line.
- Bryson Kuzdzal – Anytime TD (-110): Co-favorite in Michigan’s Anytime TD market at a similar price point.
- Bryce Underwood – 170+ passing yards (+105): This is the most balanced alt threshold listed; if Michigan trails and has to throw more, this ladder point becomes more live.
Popular Parlays on DraftKings Sportsbook
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Prediction & Best Bets
Projected final score: Texas 24, Michigan 21
Moneyline: Texas
Spread: Michigan +7
Total: Under 48.5
After reviewing the projections and models from our simulation, the DKN team believes Texas is the more likely winner, but Michigan’s run-leaning approach and defensive efficiency can keep this within one score. With both teams posting strong defensive PPA allowed and the market leaning slightly Under, the best value shows up on Michigan +7 and Under 48.5 rather than laying the touchdown with the public side.