There are nine games of NBA action tipping off across today’s New Year’s Eve slate. Starting at 3:30 p.m. ET, the Phoenix Suns will take on the Cleveland Cavaliers.
This is the first matchup between these two teams this season. After each side failed to reach their postseason goals last year, they elected to take opposite paths this offseason. The Suns hit the reset button to trade away Kevin Durant and begin to establish a new core. In contrast, the Cavaliers remain committed to their core and decided to run it back for another season. They sit in seventh and eighth place in their respective conferences at this stage of the season.
Looking at the odds for today’s matchup, the Cavaliers enter as 6.5-point favorites and hold -250 Moneyline odds on DraftKings Sportsbook. The Suns hold +205 odds of getting the outright victory with the game total set at 234.5 points.
This article will look at a preview and prediction for the Wednesday night matchup.
Suns vs. Cavaliers prediction, preview
The Phoenix Suns are off to a 19-13 start to the season, which slots them at seventh place in the Western Conference. They enter this matchup on a four-game winning streak. Phoenix is also posting an NBA-best 22-10 record against the spread this season, and the game total has gone under in 18 of their 32 games.
Devin Booker continues to headline the production for the Suns. The four-time All-Star is averaging 25.3 points, 6.4 assists, and 4.3 rebounds, despite shooting just 29.6% from beyond the three-point arc. Dillon Brooks has helped set an identity for Phoenix and found his footing on the floor, averaging 21.5 points per game. Mark Williams, Royce O’Neale, and Collin Gillespie have each impressed in their respective roles this season. Jalen Green remains sidelined with his hamstring injury and has played just two games this season. Grayson Allen is considered doubtful for today’s game, while Ryan Dunn is questionable- each with knee injuries.
As a team, the Suns rank 21st in the league in scoring at 115.1 points per game. They also rank 12th in offensive rating, 17th in field goal percentage, 10th in three-point percentage, and 24th in pace. Defensively, Phoenix is holding opponents to 113.3 points per contest, which is the seventh-best rate in the NBA. They rank 11th in defensive rating, second in opponents’ field goal attempts allowed, 18th in opponents’ field goal percentage, and 10th in opponents’ three-point percentage.
The Cleveland Cavaliers hold an 18-15 record on the season, which has dropped them to eighth place in the Eastern Conference. They blew a 17-point lead against the Knicks on Christmas to suffer a frustrating loss, and followed this up by coming up short at the hands of the Rockets. Cleveland bounced back with a win over the Spurs in the previous game, but has dropped five of their last eight matchups. The Cavaliers are an NBA-worst 11-23 against the spread this season, and the game total has gone under in 18 of their 32 games.
Donovan Mitchell headlines the production for the Cavaliers, averaging 29.5 points, 5.5 assists, and 4.5 rebounds per game. Evan Mobley pitches in 18.3 points, 9.0 rebounds, and 3.9 assists, while Jarrett Allen adds 13.8 points and 7.4 boards of his own. Darius Garland has battled injury issues this year, but is expected to be available tonight. Across his 18 games of action, Garland is averaging 16.9 points and 6.9 assists. He struggled a bit in the early parts of the season, but has had some encouraging flashes of late. Dean Wade, Sam Merrill, and Craig Porter Jr. make an impact in the rotation, while Larry Nance Jr. and Max Strus will miss tonight.
The Cavaliers average 119.4 points per game, which ranks eighth in the NBA. They are producing the 10th-best offensive rating, rank 20th in field goal percentage, 23rd in three-point percentage, and rank eighth in pace. Defensively, opponents are scoring 117.3 points per game against them, which ranks 18th. They rank 13th in defensive rating, 13th in opponents’ field goal percentage, and 28th in opponents’ three-point percentage allowed.
Suns vs. Cavaliers pick, best bet
This is the best vs. worst against the spread teams in the NBA, and I am backing both trends to continue tonight.
The Phoenix Suns have begun to set a culture after a failed attempt at a star-driven championship run. The team has bought in on the defensive side of the floor and brought an admirable level of fight on a night-to-night basis. Devin Booker is still one of the premier offensive talents in the league, and the rest of the roster has found their respective roles around him. After starting the year 1-4, Phoenix has not lost more than two games in a row in any stretch, and is 18-9 since this point.
Cleveland holds a much murkier future outlook, as they have seen a notable regression in results from last season. After leading the Eastern Conference with a 64-18 record and finishing with a .780 winning percentage, Cleveland holds a .529 winning percentage on the year. They have battled some injury issues, with Garland headlining this, but there has not been a consistent stretch where they have looked like the team they are expected to be.
Expect Phoenix to have the advantage creating additional possessions and winning the rebounding battle. Despite the presence of both Mobley and Allen on the floor, the Cavaliers rank 22nd in rebounding percentage and 22nd in rebounds allowed. The Suns have fared better this season, ranking 10th in rebounding percentage and 10th in opponents’ rebounds allowed. Phoenix is also producing the most steals per game.
The 6.5-point spread is too high for my liking, and I view the Suns as live underdogs in this game. Cleveland has failed to look like anything more than an average team all year and arrives in this game in poor form. Their losses in five of the past eight games were a bit telling, with these coming at the hands of the Bulls twice, the Hornets, the Knicks, and the Rockets. For the sake of the article, I am sticking to the Suns to cover the +6.5 spread and for this to remain competitive throughout. But don’t be shocked if the Suns can complete the outright upset by generating additional possessions en route to the win.
