The Ohio State Buckeyes host the Miami FL Hurricanes on Wednesday, December 31 at 7:30 p.m. ET. Below, our simulation breaks down the latest odds, betting splits, key stats and the best ways to bet this matchup on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Game Odds on DraftKings Sportsbook
Spread: Ohio State -9.5 (-110) | Miami FL +9.5 (-110)
Moneyline: Ohio State -360 | Miami FL +285
Total: 40.5 (-115 / -105)
Betting Splits for Ohio State vs. Miami FL
- Spread splits: 59% of bets / 72% of handle on Ohio State -9.5
- Moneyline splits: 84% of bets / 81% of handle on Ohio State -360
- Total splits: 66% of bets / 63% of handle on Over 40.5
The market is seeing heavy public support on Ohio State (especially on the Moneyline), while the spread handle leaning even harder toward the Buckeyes suggests bigger wagers are also laying the points.
Stats Snapshot (2025)
- Ohio State (B1G / Big Ten): ATS 10-3 (avg cover margin: 5.35); 299 first downs
- Miami FL (ACC): ATS 8-5 (avg cover margin: 4.46); 288 first downs
- Ohio State offense: 0.347 PPA; 0.539 success rate; 4.99 points per opportunity; pass play PPA 0.611 vs rush play PPA 0.137
- Miami FL offense: 0.240 PPA; 0.479 success rate; 4.47 points per opportunity; pass play PPA 0.479 vs rush play PPA 0.089
- Ohio State defense: -0.021 PPA; 0.352 success rate allowed; 2.55 points per opportunity allowed; havoc rate 0.165
- Miami FL defense: 0.015 PPA; 0.350 success rate allowed; 2.42 points per opportunity allowed; havoc rate 0.200
Key Stats to Know
- Ohio State passing profile stands out: passing plays are a big efficiency driver (0.611 PPA, 0.599 success rate), which can help separate from a one-dimensional game script.
- Miami FL can score when it gets chances: strong power success (0.859) and 4.47 points per opportunity, but it will need to finish drives against a defense that allows just 2.55 points per opportunity.
- Havoc battle: Miami FL’s defense shows a strong havoc rate (0.200), but Ohio State’s offense keeps negative plays relatively in check (offensive havoc allowed listed at 0.107).
How to Bet Ohio State vs. Miami FL
- Ohio State ATS: 10-3 ATS in 2025, backing up why bettors are comfortable laying -9.5.
- Miami FL ATS: 8-5 ATS in 2025, good enough to respect the underdog, but the current split shows the market still prefers Ohio State at this number.
- Total angle: With Over 40.5 taking 66% of tickets and 63% of handle, the most common game script in the market is Ohio State controlling the game while Miami contributes enough to clear the low 40s.
- Drive-finishing matters: Both defenses are strong in points-per-opportunity allowed (Ohio State 2.55, Miami FL 2.42), which can keep scoring in check even if the teams move the ball.
Players to Watch (Most-Bet Props)
- Jeremiah Smith – First TD Scorer (+400): A highlighted scoring prop for Ohio State in the First TD market.
- Bo Jackson – First TD Scorer (+400): Another co-favorite option to open the scoring for the Buckeyes.
- Mark Fletcher Jr. – 1st Miami FL TD Scorer (+245): The favorite in Miami FL’s first TD scorer market, a natural target if you’re building a Hurricanes-oriented script.
- Malachi Toney – 1st Miami FL TD Scorer (+360): Next in line for Miami FL and also featured in DraftKings parlay content tied to this matchup.
Popular Parlays on DraftKings Sportsbook
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Prediction & Best Bets
Projected final score: Ohio State 27, Miami FL 13
Moneyline: Ohio State
Spread: Ohio State -9.5
Total: Under 40.5
After reviewing the projections and models from our simulation, the DKN team believes Ohio State’s efficiency edge (especially through the air) and its ability to limit points per opportunity should create separation. The total is low and the public is leaning Over, but two defenses that consistently tighten in scoring position point us to a slightly more controlled game that still ends with Ohio State covering.