The final week of the NFL regular season is always exciting and interesting for a variety of reasons. Some teams are still fighting for a spot in the postseason, while others are vying for playoff seeding or a high NFL Draft position. Many players are trying to prove their long-term value to their teams, looking to establish themselves and earn more playing time in the future, either with their current team or a new squad.
It’s also an important week for players to finish their seasons strong who are chasing milestones or season totals. Some of those season totals are directly tied to contract incentives, as well, with players especially motivated to reach the level needed to get their extra payday. Knowing where those incentives are can help you figure out which player props to target this week as the regular season comes to an end.
Here are my three favorite player props for Week 18 that are tied to bonus incentives in contracts, and a few other incentives to keep an eye on at the bottom of the post.
Top incentive-based player prop bets for Week 18
Hunter Henry 5+ Receptions
Hunter Henry needs five catches to earn $250,000, and the Patriots are still playing for the No. 1 seed in the AFC as they go up against the Dolphins. Henry has been a huge part of the Patriots’ success in the passing game this year and has 55 catches for 712 yards and seven touchdowns on the season. He has 82 targets, which is second on the team behind only Stefon Diggs, and has averaged 3.4 catches per game.
He had at least five receptions in two of the last five weeks and brought in all three of his targets last week in a romp over the Jets. Drake Maye usually spreads the ball around pretty well, but with just a little extra motivation to get the ball to Henry, look for him to get enough targets to haul in five catches this week. The Patriots’ wide receivers are also dealing with some injuries, so Henry’s targets share would likely increase even without this incentive in play.
Sam Darnold 3+ Passing Touchdowns (+300)
It’s been a great year for Darnold in Seattle, even though he’s hit a few bumps in the road. Coming into the last week of the season, he has the Seahawks lined up to claim the top seed in the NFC and earn a bye week with a win against the 49ers in Week 18. Darnold also has two major incentives within reach this week. Throwing three passing touchdowns would earn him $500,000 and 150 passing yards earns him another $500,000.
The passing yards should be relatively attainable, and even the three passing scores aren’t out of the question. Getting them at these big plus-money odds makes it a juicy prop to chase in the Saturday night showcase on ESPN. Darnold has thrown 25 passing scores in his 16 games this season, after throwing 35 touchdowns last season in Minnesota. He reached at least three passing touchdowns in three of his games this year, lighting it up against the Buccaneers, the Commanders, and the Falcons. Each of those three games was on the road, and he’ll also be on the road this week against San Francisco.
He threw for zero touchdowns in the first matchup between these teams, which was all the way back in Week 1. As the divisional foes bookend the season with their second meeting of the season, the 49ers’ defense looks a lot less dominant, and Darnold is much more locked in with his own team’s offense.
The 49ers have allowed 29 passing touchdowns in their 16 games this season (1.8 per game). They gave up two passing touchdowns to Caleb Williams and the Bears last and have allowed exactly two passing scores in three straight weeks. They haven’t given up three passing touchdowns since Week 10, when Matthew Stafford threw four against them. Stafford had three touchdowns against them in Week 5 as well, and in an odd outlier stat, Spencer Rattler was the other QB who threw at least three touchdowns against San Francisco this season.
It isn’t likely that Darnold gets three passing scores with the Seahawks’ focus on the run game, but if the team focuses on helping him hit the incentive, and the game gets high-scoring like last week’s against the Bears.
Dawson Knox anytime touchdown
Knox has helped the Bills fill in for the recurring absence of Dalton Kincaid this season and has had a solid overall year in his seventh season in the NFL. He has already caught 34 passes for 393 yards, setting his best marks in the last three seasons.
He’s just seven receiving yards from 400 yards, which will earn him $100,000. He can also add another $100,00 with his fourth touchdown of the season. The Bills still have playoff seeding on the line, but it isn’t clear exactly how much or if the starters will play. Knox is a team favorite, though, and everyone will be looking to get the new father a nice $100K bonus with another score this week.
Other incentives to keep in mind…
Eagles RB Saquon Barkley needs 93 scrimmage yards to earn $250,000 for reaching 1,500 all-purpose yards, and the Eagles are still playing for playoff seeding against the Commanders, so he should get enough chances to go over that total.
Titans RB Tony Pollard needs 66 rushing yards for $250K, and two rushing touchdowns for another $250K. He was in a similar situation last season and came up short of both incentives, so it will be interesting to see if the Titans give him more work over Tyjae Spears or not this week.
Patriots WR Stefon Diggs is eight catches away from $500,000, and Chargers WR Keenan Allen is six catches from $750,000, nine receiving yards from $250,000, and two receiving touchdowns from $250,000. The Chargers are resting their starters, but they may give Allen just enough work to at least get his nine receiving yards.
One of the most interesting situations to watch is Panthers RB Rico Dowdle, who is just seven total yards from a huge $1,000,000 and just one touchdown from $250,000. Unfortunately, he’s battling a toe injury. He was listed as a non-participant on Tuesday, but with the division on the line and just a few yards from a $1M incentive, he’s sure to do all he can to get on the field this week.
Some other veterans with possible paydays on the line include Texans RB Nick Chubb, who needs 94 yards for $250,000, Chiefs WR Hollywood Brown, who needs one touchdown for $250,000 and 102 receiving yards for $125,000, Chiefs RB Kareem Hunt, who needs 31 scrimmage yards for $25,000, 49ers WR Kendrick Bourne, who needs 49 receiving yards from $250,000, and Buccaneers WR Sterling Shepard, who is one catch from $125,000 and 29 yards from another $125,000.
Another big incentive which will be in play this weekend is from Steelers QB Aaron Rodgers, who earns $500,000 extra if the Steelers win and make the playoffs.
