Nine games of NBA action are on the schedule for today’s New Year’s Eve slate. Tipping off at 7:00 p.m. ET, the New York Knicks will face the San Antonio Spurs. This marks a rematch of the NBA Cup Final, in which the Knicks produced a 124-113 win. This was a closer match than the 11-point finish indicates, but New York outscored San Antonio 35-19 in the final period to get the win. The game total also went over the 233.5 line on DraftKings Sportsbook. Both these teams should be relatively satisfied with their start to the season, as they look to make the leap into true NBA championship threats.
The Spurs enter tonight as 2.5-point favorites and hold -142 Moneyline odds on DraftKings Sportsbook. The Knicks are +120 underdogs, with the game total set at O/U 235.5 points.
This article will look at a preview and prediction for the Wednesday night matchup.
Knicks vs. Spurs prediction, preview
The Knicks are 23-9 this season, and sit in second place in the Eastern Conference. They enter this matchup on a three-game winning streak and have won 11 of their last 13 games. The Knicks are 18-15 against the spread this year, and the game total has gone over in 19 of 33 games, including the NBA Cup matchup.
Jalen Brunson continues to lead the production and has put forth a dark-horse MVP campaign of his own this season. The In-Season Tournament MVP is averaging 29.4 points, 6.6 assists, and 3.3 rebounds per game on the season. Karl-Anthony Towns provides balance in the front court, posting averages of 22.0 points and 11.9 rebounds per game. Mikal Bridges and OG Anunoby have each shown some impressive flashes in the new Mike Brown system. Mitchell Robinson has made an impressive impact on the boards, but will miss tonight’s action with an ankle injury. Josh Hart and Landry Shamet remain sidelined.
As a team, the Knicks are scoring 120.8 points per game, which ranks fourth in the NBA. They rank third in offensive rating, 10th in team field goal percentage, and fourth in three-point percentage. Defensively, New York is allowing 114.0 points per game, which ranks 11th. It ranks 16th in defensive rating, seventh in opponents’ field goal percentage, 21st in opponents’ three-point percentage, and 26th in pace.
The Spurs also hold a 23-9 record, which is good for second place in the Western Conference. They are looking to bounce back from back-to-back losses to the Jazz and Cavaliers, but won five consecutive games before this, including two against the OKC Thunder. The Spurs are 17-14-2 against the spread this year, and the game total has gone under in 17 of 33 matchups on the season.
Victor Wembanyama has suited up for 20 games this season and is still scaling up his workload, with him coming off the bench for six games. He has returned to the starting lineup for the previous two, and is averaging 24.0 points, 11.7 rebounds, and 3.0 blocks per game on the season. De’Aaron Fox has fully found his footing and deserves major credit for the team’s strong start. Fox is averaging 21.6 points and 6.0 assists on the season. Last year’s Rookie of the Year Stephon Castle and this year’s second-overall pick Dylan Harper have each also impressed. Harrison Barnes, Keldon Johnson, and Julian Champagnie round out some solid production on the wings, while Luke Kornet makes a strong impact at the big man spot. Devin Vassell will miss tonight’s matchup with an adductor strain, while Stephon Castle is questionable with a left thumb sprain.
San Antonio is averaging 119.5 points per game, which is the seventh-most in the NBA. It ranks sixth in offensive rating, sixth in field goal percentage, and 16th in three-point percentage. Defensively, the Spurs are holding opponents to 113.6 points per game, which ranks eighth in the league. The Spurs rank sixth in defensive rating, 12th in opponents’ field goal percentage, 15th in opponents’ three-point percentage, and 15th in pace.
Knicks vs. Spurs pick, best bet
Both of these teams last played on Monday, so there is no rest advantage in either direction. Each side also has some notable injuries, with Josh Hart and Mitchell Robinson a key part of the Knicks’ identity, while Devin Vassell is crucial to the Spurs’ spacing and matching up with New York’s wings.
This is going to be a competitive battle that should be expected to go right down to the wire, and I don’t love the 2.5-point spread in either direction. Rather, I am backing the game total to go over 235.5 points.
The game total finished at 237 in their first matchup, even while the Spurs’ offense dried up in the fourth quarter. The Spurs’ 113 scoring total was their seventh-lowest scoring output on the season. These teams each rank in the top seven in the league in scoring, with them producing a combined average of 240.3 per game. New York ranks 26th in pace, and the Spurs will look to use this to their advantage.
Neither of these teams has played to their defensive potential this season, and I don’t foresee that changing tonight. The Knicks enter the matchup having scored 126+ in three straight games, and the game total going over 250 in each. The Spurs are coming off back-to-back games where they struggled, being held to 113 and 114 points, but tallied 124+ in three of their previous four.
The Spurs are capable of getting hot from the perimeter, and the Knicks are vulnerable from this area as they rank 25th in opponents’ three-point attempts allowed and 21st in opponents’ three-point efficiency. Buckle up for some offense and expect the game total to finish above the 235.5 line.
