There are 18 NBA teams scheduled to take the court Wednesday, featuring plenty of star power and intriguing matchups even amid some serious injury developments. Before you place any bets, here is one NBA parlay you can tail as the games tip off.
Using DraftKings’ NBA Consistency Sheets, I built out a parlay of player props for Wednesday night’s action. The tool features players’ averages, win percentages, home-road splits and a brand-new matchup grade, all of which are adjustable for different sample sizes and prop markets. Balancing each of those factors against each other, here’s a breakdown of all four legs featuring insights from the sheet:
Pacers G Aaron Nesmith
Pick: Aaron Nesmith O 1.5 three-pointers (-187)
Nesmith is back from the knee injury that cost him over a month of action, hitting multiple triples in both of his games post-return. Prior to his absence, Nesmith went over 1.5 three-pointers in 80% of his games.
The Pacers guard is averaging 2.9 three-pointers per game. The only three times he has failed to go over 1.5 came against teams with D+, D and D- season matchup grades. The Magic, meanwhile, boast a B- season matchup grade for opposing guards hitting threes.
Cavaliers F Evan Mobley
Pick: Evan Mobley O 2.5 assists (-175)
Through his first 28 appearances this season, the over on Mobley at 2.5 assists is hitting at an 82% rate. He is averaging 3.9 dimes per game, having gone over 2.5 in seven of his last 10 games.
The Cavaliers are hosting the Suns, who DraftKings has pegged at a B season matchup grade in this market. Mobley only had two assists against the Spurs with their B matchup grade on Monday, but the over had previously hit 16 of 16 times Mobley went against C matchups or better.
Nuggets C Jonas Valanciunas
Pick: Jonas Valanciunas U 14.5 points (-106)
Taking the under on Valanciunas at 14.5 points carries a 94% win percentage this season. So on the surface, it feels like a solid bet that he fails to break that mark on the road against the Raptors on Wednesday, especially considering Toronto presents a D season matchup grade. Valanciunas is averaging 8.2 points per game, barely halfway to Wednesday’s line.
Of course, Nikola Jokic is out for the next few weeks with a knee injury, making Valanciunas the Nuggets’ starting center. He is going to get a lot more run than normal, which is why his line is so much higher than his past production would suggest. Valanciunas is not and never has been the scoring threat that Jokic is, though, so the increased workload won’t necessarily power him to a season-best night.
Bucks F Kyle Kuzma
Pick: Kyle Kuzma O 17.5 points + rebounds + assists (-124)
Kuzma has an A+ season matchup grade on his hands Wednesday as he prepares to face his former team in the Wizards. While Kuzma failed to break 17.5 PRA the last time he faced Washington, he did do it in his first game against them. Kuzma has had six games against teams with A or A+ matchup grade, clearing 17.5 points, rebounds and assists in five of those contests.
On the whole this season, Kuzma is averaging 20.4 PRA, going over 17.5 in 68% of his appearances. The over has an 80% win percentage over his last 10 and a 67% win percentage at home.
