The No. 2 Ohio State Buckeyes take on the No. 10 Miami Hurricanes in the quarterfinals of the College Football Playoff. The Cotton Bowl Classic kicks off at 7:30 p.m. ET in Arlington, Texas.
The Buckeyes are listed as 9.5-point favorites on DraftKings Sportsbook, with the total set at O/U 40.5 points. Below is my full preview, prediction and best bet for this College Football Playoff matchup.
Miami at Ohio State prediction, preview
Miami Preview
The Hurricanes pulled off a gritty road win over Texas A&M to advance to the quarterfinals and take on the defending champions. For the Miami offense, it was a game to forget. Carson Beck threw for just 103 yards, but he did essentially avoid throwing any interceptions. Miami actually ran the ball quite well with Mark Fletcher Jr., who went for 172 yards on over 10 yards per carry. While the Miami passing offense was quiet, wide receiver Malachi Toney is still one of the hardest players to slow down in the country. For the Miami defense, it was a game to hang your hat on. The Hurricanes’ defense is loaded with talent, especially in the front seven. They proved that they were among the elite defenses in the nation by going into College Station and holding the Aggies to three points. Now, they get the chance to prove it against the best wide receiver duo in the nation.
Ohio State Preview
The Buckeyes are looking to repeat as national champions, and their postseason journey starts against Miami. Ohio State went a perfect 12-0 in the regular season before losing to Indiana in the Big Ten Championship Game. While Ohio State may not have been overly motivated for that game, given the fact that it got a first-round bye without winning the title, there were still some worrying signs in that game. Ohio State has faced two truly elite defenses this season, Texas in the opener and Indiana in its most recent game. The Buckeyes combined for just 24 points in those two games. Julian Sayin had a sensational season, and Jeremiah Smith and Carnell Tate are the best wide receiver duo in the country. However, they still need to prove that they can light up a high-level defense like the one they’ll see at Jerry World on New Year’s Eve.
Miami at Ohio State Pick
My best bet for this game is the first-half under 20.5 points. These are two of the best defenses in the nation. Ohio State ranks second in the nation in defensive EPA/play, while Miami ranks seventh in the same category. By defensive rating, these are two of the top four defenses in the country. This is likely to be a lower-scoring game, and neither offense will want to be overly aggressive early and make a mistake that causes them to have to play from behind. Ohio State has not played a football game in 25 days, and there could be some rust when it comes to offensive fluidity. The timing could be slightly off to start, which could lead to penalties and missed throws. However, the Ohio State defense should be as dominant as ever and make life hard on Miami.
The score at halftime of the Miami/Texas A&M game was 0-0. Miami played incredible defense, but it was quite conservative on offense. It ran the ball and made life easy on Carson Beck, waiting for its chance to pounce and win the game in the second half. Miami can’t beat Ohio State in the first half, but it certainly could lose by halftime. If Miami trails Ohio State by multiple scores at halftime, it’s hard to see it being able to mount a comeback and win. Miami will want to run the ball, avoid turning it over and try to make this a low-scoring, tight game at halftime. Ryan Day is rarely aggressive in these big games and should be fine with that outcome as well, trusting his players to win in the second half. While it might not be another 0-0 halftime score, this game should make it two straight CFP games under the first-half total for Miami.
