The quarterfinals of the College Football Playoff kick off on Wednesday night and continue into Thursday. These are my top targets and values for the featured Thursday slate.
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Quarterback
Stud
Gunner Stockton, Georgia vs. Ole Miss, $8,100
Gunner Stockton has turned into a great quarterback for Georgia. This time last season, he was making his first career start in the first round of the College Football Playoff. He struggled to produce enough through the air to take down Notre Dame in a tough College Football Playoff matchup. After a full season as the starter, Stockton has turned into not only a reliable quarterback, but one who is capable of putting up huge numbers both through the air and on the ground. In the regular-season matchup between these teams, Stockton threw for 289 yards and four touchdowns and rushed for 59 yards and another score. He should have another huge game against the Rebels.
Value
Ty Simpson, Alabama at Indiana, $7,500
Ty Simpson is the second-cheapest of the six available starting quarterbacks in this content. That is largely due to the fact that Indiana is an incredibly tough opponent. However, that doesn’t mean Simpson won’t put up big numbers in this game. Alabama has struggled to run the ball all season, and Indiana has an elite run defense, so that isn’t starting now. The Crimson Tide’s best chance of winning this game is letting Ty Simpson throw downfield and creating big plays. As seven-point underdogs, there is also a chance that Alabama will be trailing for most of this game. Facing the Heisman Trophy-winning quarterback, Simpson might need to keep throwing to keep up with Fernando Mendoza and Indiana. Simpson has been one of the best quarterbacks in the country when he’s been on his A-game this season, and it’s worth taking a chance on him to do so here.
Running Back
Stud
Cameron Dickey, Texas Tech vs. Oregon, $6,800
If this game between Texas Tech and Oregon turns into a shootout, Texas Tech likely has no chance. The Red Raiders have gotten this far by relying on their elite defense and a strong running game. Texas Tech wants to slow this game down and limit the number of total possessions. That will come by running the ball effectively with Cameron Dickey. Dickey was a 1,000-yard rusher on the season and finished 18th in the nation in rushing touchdowns. In each of his past four games, Dickey had at least 92 scrimmage yards. He also had five total touchdowns over that four-game stretch. Oregon ranks third in the nation in defensive EPA/dropback but 22nd in defensive EPA/rush. Dickey should have another solid game against the Ducks.
Value
Nate Frazier, Georgia vs. Ole Miss, $5,500
Nate Frazier is the Bulldogs’ leading rusher on the season. Frazier had one of his best games of the season in the regular-season finale against Georgia Tech, rushing for over 100 yards. Frazier also played well in the regular-season matchup against Ole Miss, rushing for 72 yards and scoring a touchdown through the air. Ole Miss could not stop Georgia in the first matchup between these teams. The Rebels rank 45th in the nation in defensive EPA/rush, compared to ranking 16th against the pass. Frazier should control this game for the Bulldogs and find the end zone at least once.
Wide Receiver
Stud
Omar Cooper Jr., Indiana vs. Alabama, $6,300
Indiana has two star receivers, Elijah Sarratt and Omar Cooper Jr. Sarratt was the team’s leading receiver through the first few weeks of the season, but Cooper came on strong down the stretch. Heading into this game, Cooper leads the Hoosiers in receptions and receiving yards. He is also tied for seventh in the nation with 11 receiving touchdowns this season. Cooper got injured early in the Big Ten Championship Game before he even caught a pass. However, he is back at full health for this game and should be determined to perform in front of the nation. He scored a touchdown in four straight games to end the season and should keep that streak going against the Crimson Tide.
Value
Charlie Becker, Indiana vs. Alabama, $4,400
While Omar Cooper Jr. and Elijah Sarratt were Indiana’s standout receivers all season, Charlie Becker caught fire down the stretch. Becker led the Hoosiers in receiving yards in three of their final four games, including the Big Ten title game against Ohio State. The sophomore turned into Fernando Mendoza’s best deep threat, making a catch of at least 48 yards in four of his past five games. With so much defensive attention on Cooper and Sarratt, Becker often gets into single coverage. He can take advantage of that and create some big plays against Alabama.
Flex/Superflex
You can use any of the other names I listed in the above categories for the flex or superflex positions. However, here are a few more names, just in case.
Stud
Trinidad Chambliss, QB, Ole Miss at Georgia, $8,000
Trinidad Chambliss has been one of the best stories in college football. Chambliss came to Ole Miss as a transfer from Ferris State and started the season as the backup. He stepped in after Austin Simmons got injured early in the season and never gave the job back. Chambliss can create plays with his arm and on the ground, making him tough for any defense to stop. In the regular-season matchup against Georgia, Chambliss threw for over 260 yards and a score while also rushing for two touchdowns. Georgia will score with ease against Ole Miss, so Chambliss will need to keep moving it to keep up with the Bulldogs. He should have another great game against Georgia in the Sugar Bowl.
Value
Germie Bernard, WR, Alabama at Indiana, $6,100
Germie Bernard has been the go-to guy for Ty Simpson all season. Bernard leads the team in receptions and receiving yards this season. In these big games, Bernard often performs at his best. Kalen DeBoer and Ryan Grubb have full faith in Bernard, as they have been with him since their days at Washington. Bernard is a dynamic playmaker who can be used as a standard receiver, in the screen game or even out of the backfield. In a game where it will be hard to beat Indiana’s defense, DeBoer will try to just get the ball to Bernard by any means possible. If there is ever a game where Alabama needs Bernard at his best, it’s this one against the Hoosiers.
