College Football Playoff Quarterfinals Best Bets
Cotton Bowl: No. 10 Miami Hurricanes vs. No. 2 Ohio State Buckeyes (Wednesday 7:30pm ET – Arlington, TX)
The Hurricanes and Buckeyes kickoff the second round of the CFP on New Year’s Eve in Texas, and while this one has the largest point spread, I think we could be in for a good game. Miami’s defense showed up on the road in a big way at Texas A&M, holding the Aggies to just three points at home. That ‘Canes defense is capable of giving Ohio State some issues.
However, what the Buckeyes have that the Aggies didn’t, is a slew of explosive playmakers on the offensive side of the ball. Julian Sayin is far from perfect at quarterback, but he’s an upgrade over what Miami saw in Marcel Reed when it comes to throwing the ball down field. From there, look for Jeremiah Smith and company to make some big time plays.
On the flip side, as solid as A&M was on defense, Ohio State should be able to both the Hurricanes even more when Carson Beck and the offense are on the field. I’m not looking to lay near double-digits in this one out of respect for Miami’s defense, but I do believe Ohio State has the playmaking ability on both sides to win the game.
CFB Pick: Ohio State/Georgia ML Parlay (-125)
Orange Bowl: No. 5 Oregon Ducks vs. No. 4 Texas Tech Red Raiders (Thursday 12pm ET – Miami, FL)
This one is my favorite side in this round of the CFP, as I feel Oregon is being overvalued coming off the win against James Madison. The Ducks are legit on offense, and I backed them on their team totals in the first round. However, playing James Madison at home is a much cushier scenario than playing Texas Tech on a neutral.
Dan Lanning needed to rip the monkey off his back in a “big game,” and while the JMU game was big in terms of it being a CFP game, it wasn’t all that tough of a task. Yet, despite getting off to a monster lead in the game, Oregon still couldn’t slam the door. The Ducks were problematic on defense, giving up 28 points to JMU in the second half alone, and letting the Dukes backdoor the game. Not exactly an inspiring effort from Oregon.
Texas Tech will be well prepared and well coached in this one. The trip to Florida is a much shorter trip for the Red Raiders, and the time change will be much more significant for Oregon — especially with this game being the early kickoff. I expect to see Texas Tech absolutely shred Oregon’s defense, and the Red Raiders have an elite enough defense that we should see it at least slow the Ducks down.
Texas Tech feels wildly undervalued to me in this game, yet the spread keeps moving towards Oregon. I’ll wait out a better number, but I like the Red Raiders outright.
CFB Pick: Texas Tech +2.5 (-105) – see if you can wait for +3
Rose Bowl: No. 9 Alabama Crimson Tide vs. No. 1 Indiana Hoosiers (Thursday 4pm ET – Pasadena, CA)
Alabama dug itself into an uncomfortable hole on the road in the first round, down 17-0 at Oklahoma. But the Tide stormed back and ultimately dominated the second half to win the game by double digits. Oklahoma had plenty of self inflicted wounds, and Indiana is simply too good and too well coached to let ‘Bama off the hook like that.
That said, while it was almost a month ago, Indiana is off the biggest win in program history. It upset Ohio State in the Big Ten Championship, watched it’s quarterback win the Heisman, and finally got that “No. 1” next to its name in the rankings. Curt Cignetti will still have his guys ready to go, but could IU possibly be overvalued for the first time?
I’m nervous about stepping in front of the Hoosiers, because they just continuously answer the call every time a big game comes up. But if I’m getting a touchdown or more with Alabama, there’s also very few scenarios that I’ll pass on that number. The Crimson Tide are loaded with talent on defense, and Ty Simpson and the passing game have proven capable to be able to make the big plays to win games, even when the running game is ineffective.
So far this game is off my card, but if I can get more than a touchdown with the Crimson Tide, I’d consider playing them.
CFB Lean: Alabama +7.5 or better
Sugar Bowl: No. 6 Ole Miss Rebels vs. No. 3 Georgia Bulldogs (Thursday 8pm ET – New Orleans, LA)
I’m trying Georgia into the ML parlay with Ohio State to close out the slate. These teams are obviously very familiar with each other, and did play in Athens in October. Ole Miss got off to a blazing start, and the Bulldogs struggled on defense. But ultimately, as Kirby Smart has seemed to do nearly all season, the defense improved as the game went on. Georgia wound up winning the fourth quarter 17-0, which led the Bulldogs to a comeback victory by a score of 43-35.
While the revenge angle belongs to Ole Miss in this one, I also expect Smart to have his team very well prepared for this game for a couple of reasons. In a rematch against Alabama, the Georgia defense was significantly better. The Rebels are going to have to have a lot of tricks up their sleeve to confuse UGA in this one.
Georgia also had a bye in the postseason last year, but lost its opening game to Notre Dame. I think Smart is reminding his team of that feeling, and turning it into motivation. Georgia is the only team to have a bye in both 12-team CFP’s, and Smart doesn’t want to lose both opening games off a bye.
There’s also the Lane Kiffin factor. While his absence seemed like nothing in the first round, that was against Tulane at home. Facing Georgia on a neutral is a totally different ballgame. I like the Bulldogs so be more prepared for this one, and the defense to improve as the game goes on.
CFB Pick: Ohio State/Georgia ML Parlay (-125)
