College football is ending 2025 with a bang, offering several can’t-miss postseason matchups. That includes the Sun Bowl, an intriguing Big 12-ACC showdown. Arizona State has battled injuries all season, including under center. Still, Kenny Dillingham’s squad remained competitive with an 8-4 record. Now, the Sun Devils will hope to earn another victory against Duke. The 8-5 Blue Devils shocked the nation with their championship game upset over Virginia earlier this month. Will they prove it wasn’t a fluke this afternoon?
Duke enters this contest as three-point favorites (-118) over Arizona State, with the over/under set at 47.5 points on DraftKings Sportsbook. The Blue Devils are favored at -170 on the moneyline.
Arizona State vs. Duke prediction, preview
As has been the case all season, ASU will be without some key contributors on Wednesday. Quarterback Sam Leavitt is gone, after missing a sizable portion of the season. Still, the Sun Devils have managed to win games with veteran Jeff Sims at QB. The senior is expected to start, but freshman Cam Dyer will get some reps per Dillingham. Elsewhere, future first-round receiver Jordyn Tyson is opting out. Fellow playmakers are departing as well, including RB Raleek Brown and TE Chamon Metayer. That leaves a significant talent deficit on offense for the Sun Devils.
If Arizona State is going to earn a win, it’ll likely need to keep things low-scoring. The absence of several defensive backs makes that a somewhat difficult proposition. Still, this unit has been one of the Big 12’s best so far. ASU ranks inside the conference’s top six schools in yards per rush attempt and yards per pass attempt. Still, the Sun Devils will be without Keyshaun Elliot, the team’s leader in sacks (7.0) and tackles for loss (14.0).
In comparison, there’s far more proven talent taking the field for Duke. It all starts with quarterback Dairan Mensah, one of the nation’s most underrated passers. Through 13 games, he’s thrown for 3,646 yards and 30 touchdowns while giving up five interceptions. It helps that Mensah has a terrific target in Cooper Barkate. The senior has snagged 68 catches for 1,069 yards and six touchdowns during his debut season in Durham. On the ground, leading rusher Nate Sheppard should be good to go today, as well. The only major loss on offense will be starting right tackle Brian Parker II.
Duke’s defense is flawed, to put it lightly. This group has surrendered 409.2 yards of offense per game to opponents, fourth-most in the ACC. In the secondary, the team has allowed a conference-worst 8.2 yards per pass attempt. Still, a run-first quarterback such as Sims isn’t likely to stretch the field, especially without Tyson. Limiting ASU’s running game should be the priority for head coach Manny Diaz. In that regard, the Blue Devils are giving up a mediocre 4.09 yards per rush. That’s not ideal, but Arizona State’s effectiveness will be hampered on the ground without running back Raleek Brown.
Arizona State vs. Duke pick, best bet
If this were a mid-November neutral site game, the odds would likely tilt in ASU’s favor. However, it’s bowl season, which means opt-outs are inevitable. The biggest difference between these schools right now is at quarterback. With respect to Sims, Mensah has the clear talent advantage. No Tyson means an already limited Sun Devils passing game will need contributions from unheralded receivers. To make matters worse, Arizona State’s pass defense is at limited strength. Add it all up, and a more complete Blue Devils roster has the edge today in El Paso.
