Only 11 players have ever appeared in an NBA game at the age of 41. Tonight, the Los Angeles Lakers’ LeBron James is set to become the fourth.
More than 22 years ago, James made his debut as an 18-year-old and became the youngest player in league history to reach several scoring milestones. Now, he’s likely to become the oldest player in league history to reach several others.
He’ll open his account as a 41-year-old with a 10:30 p.m. ET home game against the East-leading Detroit Pistons, against whom he has a 42-23 record in his career. Rui Hachimura, Gabe Vincent, and Austin Reaves are out for the Lakers, while the Pistons will be completely healthy besides bench wing Caris LeVert.
Detroit is a 2.5-point favorite at DraftKings Sportsbook (-148 Moneyline), with the point total set to 233.5. Los Angeles is +124 on the Moneyline. Below, I’ll break down tonight’s clash and offer my prediction.
Detroit Pistons at Los Angeles Lakers preview, prediction
After a surprising 2024-25 season in which they more than tripled their win total from the previous season, the Pistons’ early-season 13-game winning streak established them as proper contenders, and while two consecutive losses means the New York Knicks have pulled within one game of the East lead, Detroit should keep jostling for that top playoff spot for the rest of the season. A season after finishing third in Most Improved Player voting, Cade Cunningham has vaulted himself into the MVP conversation, and Jalen Duren is a near-certainty to make his first All-Star appearance. The Pistons could get even better if their other recent fifth overall picks, Jaden Ivey and Ron Holland II, start playing better on offense.
The Lakers, meanwhile, broke out of a three-game skid with a blowout win over the Sacramento Kings on Sunday night, but beating Sacramento is hardly a strong litmus test. Los Angeles obviously has pieces — Luka Dončić is leading the league in scoring for the second time in three seasons despite a balky three-point jumper — but its 20-10 record is better than its point differential would imply, thanks to the fact that it has gone a league-best 10-0 in clutch situations. Regardless, stacking up wins is important, and the Lakers have built themselves enough of a cushion to withstand Reaves’ monthlong absence.
Pistons at Lakers pick, best bet
Detroit will be able to stop Los Angeles, but that might not be the case the other way around. Across their last 10 games, the Lakers have had the league’s third-worst defense, while the Pistons rank second in defensive rating for the season. Los Angeles’ roster turmoil in that span hasn’t helped — Reaves has missed most of the stretch, while Dončić missed a game and a half due to a lower leg contusion — but it’s clear that something needs to change, and Hachimura’s absence could give JJ Redick a chance to experiment, perhaps by starting Jake LaRavia or Jarred Vanderbilt. This season, the Lakers have been 2.8 points per 100 possessions better defensively with Vanderbilt on the court. They’ve been 2.3 points per 100 possessions worse on that side of the ball with Hachimura on the floor, so perhaps his absence is addition by subtraction.
Regardless of who starts for Los Angeles, Detroit’s ability to get downhill will be key. While the Lakers have done a good job keeping opponents from getting to the rim, allowing the eighth-fewest restricted-area attempts so far in December, opponents have finished at the league’s third-highest rate once they get there. That’s an area in which the Pistons have excelled: they’ve attempted the third-most shots in the restricted area and canned them at roughly a league-average rate. On the other end of the floor, Detroit — which has limited opponents to the fourth-fewest attempts at the rim and allowed the sixth-lowest percentage — will need to stay vigilant against Los Angeles; despite not getting downhill very frequently, the Lakers have been the most accurate team from both the restricted area and the non-restricted paint.
With the Pistons having the edge down low, Los Angeles will need to fight hard on the boards and play disciplined basketball. Detroit could have the advantage on the boards (it averages the second-most rebounds per game and the Lakers the fifth-fewest), but it’s not like the Lakers are complete slouches on the glass either. Both teams have turnover problems (individually, Dončić and Cunningham rank first and second in that stat), but the Pistons have been better at racking up steals, generating points off of their turnovers, and getting back in transition after coughing it up. Individually, Cunningham has had some success against the man likely to guard him for much of tonight, Marcus Smart (one for three from the field, without a turnover), and while Dončić hasn’t faced the player likely to be his primary defender (Ausar Thompson), he has gone just two-for-14 combined against Thompson’s twin brother Amen, who plays similarly and has similar traits. Since it’s likely to lose the turnover battle, Los Angeles will need to take advantage of trips to the charity stripe, since Detroit has been the league’s most foul-happy team.
Shooting could be the decisive factor for the Lakers. Much of Los Angeles’ bad defense across the last 10 games has to do with atrocious shooting luck, as despite allowing the fifth-fewest wide-open three-point attempts, opponents have connected at a completely unsustainable 46.5% rate, the second-worst mark in basketball across that span. That trend is unlikely to continue tonight against the Pistons, who have made their uncontested looks at the league’s second-lowest rate, and between Cunningham, the offensively-limited Thompson, and Duren, Detroit starts three relative non-shooters, so it’s probably not a complete fluke. The Lakers’ three-point shooting might also take a step back without Hachimura, the only rotation player shooting north of 40% from deep, but Smart and LaRavia are probably due for some positive regression.
Still, even with Los Angeles’ superior shooting, the Pistons allow few enough uncontested shots and the Lakers generate few enough that the difference likely won’t make up for Detroit’s other advantages. As Redick continues to evolve his rotations, the Pistons have more short-term continuity, and they might be more motivated after letting Kawhi Leonard drop a career-high 55 points against them on Sunday night. I’d back Detroit to cover the spread.
