The College Football Playoffs are raging on, but several other high-profile matchups are taking place across the country. On Saturday, we have an ACC vs. SEC clash in the Gator Bowl, which kicks off in Jacksonville, Florida at 7:30 p.m. EST. The Virginia Cavaliers finished the regular season at No. 20 in the AP Poll and now face off against the No. 25 Missouri Tigers in this neutral-site showdown.
Here’s a prediction and pick on DraftKings Sportsbook for Virginia vs. Missouri in the 2025 Gator Bowl.
Virginia vs. Missouri prediction, preview
Virginia Cavaliers
Virginia finished the regular season at 10-3 following a heartbreaking overtime loss to the Duke Blue Devils in the ACC title game. An appearance in the Gator Bowl is little consolation for that outcome, but it does give them a chance to make one last statement on the national level against a fellow ranked opponent. Virginia’s offense averaged 30.3 points and 403.7 yards per game this season, each in the top quartile of teams around the nation. The Cavaliers are led by quarterback Chandler Morris, who threw for 2,802 yards, 16 touchdowns and nine interceptions while completing 64.6% of his passes. He’s expected to play his final collegiate game today, putting him in position to notch one final accolade. J’Mari Taylor paced the team with 1,062 rushing yards and 14 touchdowns as the clear lead back, but it’s still unclear whether he’ll play today. Trell Harris led the team in receiving with 59 grabs for 847 yards and five scores but was injured in the ACC Championship, so his status is also unclear. Defensively, Virginia allowed 20.9 points and 318.3 yards per game, each top-25 marks in the country. The Cavaliers are elite on third down with the third-lowest conversion rate allowed, and they’re rather strong against both the run and the pass while forcing 1.7 takeaways per game. However, starting cornerback Ja’Son Prevard is in the portal and a couple of safeties are also potential opt-outs, leaving this secondary with less reliable production than in a typical situation.
Missouri Tigers
Meanwhile, Missouri went 8-4 this season with standout wins over Kansas, South Carolina and Auburn, and even losses to Alabama and Vanderbilt were decided by one touchdown or less. The Tigers weren’t fantastic, but they could play most teams closely and should be quite competitive today. Mizzou averaged 29.5 points and 417.5 yards per game, both top-40 rankings, and their rushing attack looked particularly dominant thanks to the star in the backfield. Ahmad Hardy ran for 1,560 yards and 16 touchdowns during the regular season, and with a hair over 60 yards today he can become the program’s single-season rushing leader. The offense will lean on him with quarterback Matt Zollers in line to start after taking over for Beau Pribula at midseason, with Zollers tallying 402 yards and four touchdowns in somewhat limited action. Missouri won’t have its WR3 or WR4 available with both opting out, but leading wideout Kevin Coleman Jr. will play after notching team-highs of 63 catches for 715 yards, far eclipsing the other weapons. The Tigers’ defense is stronger than the other side of the ball though, limiting opponents to 20.6 points and 279.2 yards of offense per game, the latter of which ranks seventh in the country. They’re also 19th in opponent third-down conversion rate and fall top-16 against both the run and the pass, so moving the ball can be tough sledding against them even despite a relative lack of turnovers created. Very few contributors have opted out on defense, and middle linebacker Josiah Trotter is the only notable starter who won’t play due to injury on that side.
Virginia vs. Missouri pick, best bet
On DraftKings Sportsbook, Missouri comes in as a four-point favorite with -185 odds on the Moneyline. Virginia sees +154 odds to win outright with the game total set at 43.5 points.
Betting splits show around 77% of straight wagers on the Tigers to win outright and 66% on them to cover. As for the total, 70% of bets favor the over today.
With Virginia missing its top wideout and potentially the ACC’s leading rusher, the Cavaliers are suddenly at real risk of playing without their two best playmakers. A matchup against an excellent defense already didn’t bode well, but taking the field without that pair would spell near-certain disaster against a Missouri squad that’s largely intact among its starters. The big question marks in this contest are whether Taylor plays for Virginia and how Zollers plays for Mizzou given his own inexperience, but either way, the Tigers are better equipped to handle business today and have the best player in this game with Hardy still working as the lead runner in the backfield. Watch for a Tigers win as Missouri goes on to cover as well, riding a strong running game and defense to make it happen against a struggling Cavaliers attack.
