The College Football Playoffs are raging on, but several other high-profile matchups are taking place across the country. In the New Mexico Bowl, the North Texas Mean Green and freshman quarterback sensation Drew Mestemaker take on an SDSU Aztecs squad intent on ending the campaign on a high note. Will elite offense or an imposing defense prevail?
Here’s a prediction and pick on DraftKings Sportsbook for North Texas vs. SDSU in the 2025 New Mexico Bowl.
North Texas vs. SDSU prediction, preview
North Texas Mean Green
The Mean Green deployed one of the most impressive offenses in the entire nation this season helmed by perhaps the most inspiring story in the sport at quarterback. Freshman quarterback Drew Mestemaker led the country with 4,129 passing yards on one of the highest-scoring units in football, tossing 31 touchdowns to just seven interceptions in the process. While his name is sure to garner plenty of interest (and cash) in the transfer portal, he’s suiting up for UNT in what’s likely his last game in green today. He leads an offense that averaged an FBS-best 44.3 points and 507.6 yards per game en route to an 11-2 record. Halfback Caleb Hawkins rushed for 1,236 yards and an FBS-high 23 touchdowns as a freshman as well, and he should be available to play today as well. Plus, the team’s leading receiver Wyatt Young is also expected to take the field after recording 1,209 yards and 10 touchdowns through the air this year. Those three talents form a formidable trio, and while they likely won’t be back next year, they do get one last ride here. As for the North Texas defense, the unit allowed 27.0 points and 391.5 yards per game this season and particularly struggled to defend the run. A couple of starting defensive linemen have entered the portal, but the secondary remains largely intact after ranking ninth-best against the pass this season.
SDSU Aztecs
Looking toward SDSU, the Aztecs went 9-3 this season as they rode in the backpack of a very strong defense to win games. This group allowed just 13.7 points per game, fourth-fewest of any team, and their 283.2 total yards allowed per game ranked 10th in the country. The Aztecs also held opponents to the eighth-lowest red-zone scoring percentage and 17th-lowest third-down conversion rate, so they tend to rise to the occasion when needed. An elite passing defense gave up just 167.2 yards per contest, seventh-best, but the team finishes 22nd against the run as well. The group did lose a couple of players on the edges of the defensive line for this one, but the remainder of the defense appears intact and could challenge UNT. However, the SDSU offense is far less formidable with just 23.1 points and 330.7 yards per game, the 93rd and 105th marks in the nation. A run-heavy approach led by halfback Lucky Sutton’s 1,237 yards and 10 touchdowns served as the motor of the attack, but it’ll hurt not having starting quarterback Jayden Denegal available as he recovers from a shoulder surgery. Instead, Bert Emanuel likely gets the start with just 60 career pass attempts to his name across four years of NCAA ball.
North Texas vs. SDSU pick, best bet
On DraftKings Sportsbook, North Texas comes in as a seven-point favorite with -278 odds on the Moneyline. SDSU sees +225 odds to win outright with the game total set at 52.5 points.
Betting splits show around 88% of straight wagers on the Mean Green to win outright and 68% on them to cover. As for the total, 65% of bets favor the over today.
This should be a fun battle between an unstoppable force and immovable object. UNT posted crazy numbers on the scoreboard throughout a program-best campaign thanks to Mestemaker, Hawkins and Young, so assuming all three play here, how they handle an excellent defense should prove interesting. They’re a true star trio and it’ll be a shame to see them go separate ways this offseason if the talk of transfers is true. While the loss of head coach Eric Morris could hurt today after he left to take the Oklahoma State job, there’s enough talent here and very few opt-outs on the offensive side of things. The defense could prove far more problematic since stopping the run was such a struggle for the Mean Green and they face a standout halfback like Sutton, so watch for the runner to post a big outing in the box score. However, the Aztecs lost defensive coordinator Rob Aurich, who departed for Nebraska, and operating with an inexperienced quarterback may be a real issue here as well.
In the last ride for North Texas’ arsenal of weapons on offense, watch for them to light up the scoreboard one more time before riding into the sunset.
