New England is 12–3, and every win still buys it something in the AFC’s top tier. The division is still on the table, and the seeding math still matters, so the Patriots can’t treat this like a preseason Sunday. The Jets are 3–12, living in that late-season fog of auditions, injuries, and quiet exits, where every snap is both evaluation and triage. Brady Cook gets the start, and the whole operation tightens around what he can survive, because this isn’t a quarterback you build a fireworks plan around. It’s a quarterback you protect with cadence, quick throws, and a run call you can live with on second-and-nine. Drake Maye knows this is a “do your job” game, not a flex game, because the only thing that can hurt New England is giving a dead opponent oxygen. This is also the kind of spot where a contender plays slightly tighter, not looser, because the league’s January conversation is always watching for a stumble. Below is my prediction for NFL Week 17’s game between the New York Jets and the New England Patriots.
Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.
Jets vs. Patriots prediction, preview
The under starts with the honest gulf in offensive quality and recent shape, and the player-level splits make it feel even colder. New England sits at 0.104 EPA/play on the season and jumps to 0.132 over the last six games, while the Jets crater from -0.123 to -0.221. The passing split is even louder, with New England at 0.240 EPA/pass and the Jets at -0.170, then -0.289 recently, and Brady Cook (QB) is walking in with a profile that screams “punt equity.” He’s at -0.41 EPA/play with a 32.52% success rate, 5.38 yards per attempt, and a 14.05% sack rate, with one touchdown against six picks. That’s not a quarterback who accelerates totals. It’s a quarterback who turns every third-and-seven into a survival drill.
Drake Maye (QB) is the opposite kind of driver, but his efficiency still doesn’t demand an over when the opponent can’t answer. Maye is at 0.21 EPA/play with 25 touchdowns and eight interceptions, and he pushes the ball with a 9.43 aDOT while still completing 70.86%. He also gets it out in 2.79 seconds, which is how New England stays on schedule even when protection wobbles. The Jets’ defense has been a pass-funnel disaster lately, sitting at 0.260 EPA/pass allowed over the last six, but that often turns into methodical scoring, not fireworks, because New England’s skill group is thinner than usual. Stefon Diggs (WR) is out, and he was the stabilizer with 76 catches for 869 yards on the season, a 2.31 yards-per-route mark, and a ridiculous 81.7% catch rate. Kayshon Boutte (WR) is also out, and he was the vertical shortcut with 527 yards and six touchdowns, plus a 69.2% deep catch rate on 18-of-26. When those two are missing, the Patriots can still move it, but the drives skew longer and more substitution-heavy.
That’s where Hunter Henry (TE) becomes the center of gravity, and he’s an under-friendly player because his targets chew clock. Henry has 79 targets for 52 catches and 663 yards with six touchdowns. He’s also the red-zone magnet with 19 red-zone targets and four touchdowns there, which tells you how New England prefers to finish. The Jets can also force New England into field goals instead of sevens, because the Patriots’ red-zone touchdown rate has slipped to 53.3% over the last six games. That’s the under’s best friend, because it keeps the Patriots scoring without letting the total run away. On the Jets’ side, the pass catchers don’t have the efficiency to turn checkdowns into points. Adonai Mitchell (WR) leads the volume lately with 40 targets over the last six, but he’s sitting at a 48.4% catch rate on the season and just a 29.2% catch rate on deep targets. Even the “successful” Jets drives are more likely to be 13 plays for three points than two plays for seven.
And the game still lacks the explosive fuel that flips totals fast. The Jets have fallen to a 5.2% explosive play rate over the last six. Their receiving corps is sitting at -1.35 EPA/target over that span, with a 59.1% catch rate, and that’s the definition of empty volume. New England’s receiving group, even shorthanded, is still far cleaner at 71.7% catch rate on the season and 1.44 EPA/target, but it’s also trending slightly down lately. Over the last six, the Patriots have 77 targets for 55 catches and only four receiving touchdowns, with yards per route slipping to 1.57. That’s not “shootout form,” even with Maye’s talent. It’s “control the game and cash field goals” form, and it’s exactly how an under at 42.5 survives.
Patriots vs. Jets pick, best bet
The over case is real enough to respect, and it usually comes from two places. One is defensive slippage against the run for New England, because its rush defense has worsened to 0.071 EPA/rush allowed over the last six. If the Jets commit to the ground game and hit a couple clean explosives, they can steal enough field position to land in the red zone. The second is short fields and goal-line efficiency, because the Jets have been perfect in goal-to-go situations at 100.0%. That can turn one broken coverage or one busted punt fit into a cheap touchdown. The Jets also carry a capable kicking profile, and a cold game can still produce points if both teams start near midfield. I still come back to Cook and the Jets’ inability to sustain. They run fewer plays per drive, dropping to 4.9 recently, and they don’t stack explosives. Even with perfect goal-to-go finishing, you have to get there first.
Injury reality keeps the under lean clean and practical. New England’s front seven takes real hits with Harold Landry and Robert Spillane out, and the interior rotation loses bodies too. That raises the Jets’ chance to run for competence, not dominance, and competence still burns clock. The Jets lose key pieces as well, with Will McDonald and Mason Taylor out, which limits both pass rush juice and any easy middle-of-field completions. Xavier Newman being questionable matters because one weak link on the line turns “quick game” into “panic game.” If Tyrod Taylor can’t even dress as a stable backup, the Jets play tighter, not looser. All of that points to a game where New England plays to win the division math and protect itself, not chase style points.
I’m taking under 42.5 on DraftKings, and I’m doing it because the most likely scoring path is boring and asymmetric. New England should build a lead with efficiency, then play possession football and let the Jets bleed attempts. The Jets should try to hide Cook with quick throws and early-down runs, but that plan still produces stalled drives when third down arrives. New England sits around 42% on third down for the season, and the Jets sit in the mid-30s, and that gap shows up as punts. I also expect a conservative finish if the Patriots lead in the fourth quarter, because the only true threat to this under is chaos. The chaos tree includes a defensive touchdown, a return touchdown, or back-to-back short fields, and that’s always live. It just isn’t the most likely story here, especially with a Jets offense running downhill lately.
Predicted score: Patriots 24, Jets 10.
Best bet: Jets vs. Patriots u42.5 total points (-110)
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The full-game under is really a Jets offense bet, and the recent shape is brutal. New York is at -0.221 EPA/play over the last six with -0.289 EPA/pass, a 37.3% success rate, and only 5.2% explosives, which is how you end up living on punts. Brady Cook (QB) drags the ceiling down even further with -0.41 EPA/play, a 32.52% success rate, 5.38 YPA, a 14.05% sack rate, and a 1-to-6 TD-INT line. The Jets are trying to hide it with speed, jumping to a 51.8% quick-throw rate lately, but that usually means short completions and long third downs. New England’s defense is built to cash those downs, improving to -0.070 EPA/pass allowed over the last six while still creating pressure at 37.2%. With Mason Taylor (TE) out, the Jets’ easy middle-of-field outlets thin out, and the red-zone trips become even harder to earn. If the Patriots lead, the Jets are either forcing throws into bad looks or bleeding clock with empty drives, and both paths keep them under two touchdowns.
Best prop lean: Jets TT u14.5 total points (-120)
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