The College Football Playoffs are raging on, but several other high-profile matchups are taking place across the country. On Saturday, the LSU Tigers finish out one of the most eventful seasons in recent memory with an appearance in the Texas Bowl against the Houston Cougars. It’s an SEC vs. Big 12 showdown at 9:15 p.m. EST, so get the popcorn ready and tune in.
Here’s a prediction and pick on DraftKings Sportsbook for LSU vs. Houston in the 2025 Texas Bowl.
LSU vs. Houston prediction, preview
LSU Tigers
To answer the question everyone is asking, no, Lane Kiffin is not coaching LSU in the Texas Bowl. He’ll assume head coach duties on the sidelines next season as interim head coach Frank Wilson finishes out his brief tenure at the helm tonight. It was a tumultuous campaign for the Tigers at 7-5, drastically underperforming preseason expectations of a potential playoff appearance. LSU’s offense looks somewhat different than it did during the regular season with Garrett Nussmeier opting out, leaving Michael Van Buren Jr. as the likely starter after throwing for 743 yards, five touchdowns and two interceptions on 125 attempts. The Tigers averaged just 18.7 points and 315.5 yards per game this year, 117th and 118th in the nation, so expecting a big night on offense doesn’t feel realistic. There were very few positives on that side of the ball, and a handful of the team’s top wideouts are potential opt-outs though they still appear on the official depth chart. At the very least, the halfback tandem of Caden Durham and Harlem Berry are both expected to play. Looking toward the defense, LSU was very strong on that end with 19.1 points and 330.5 yards allowed per game, 15th and 28th-best. The Tigers were very solid against both the run and the pass, and they forced 1.9 takeaways per game to create plenty of game-swinging plays. Star cornerback Mansoor Delane, a litany of linebackers and a couple of EDGE players have all opted out or could potentially not play though, leaving tonight’s group somewhat uncertain.
Houston Cougars
The Cougars get to remain in their home state for this contest and have the chance to make a statement win on the national stage. Houston went 9-3 this season despite not being particularly dominant in any given area, showing just how far quality coaching can go with Willie Fritz at the helm. The Cougars averaged 28.5 points and 295.3 yards per game, 26th and 50th in the nation while logging the 19th-best red-zone scoring percentage. Connor Weigman remains the starting quarterback with 2,475 yards, 21 touchdowns and nine interceptions to his name in his first year with the program. His leading receiving weapons, Amare Thomas (59 REC, 906 YDS, 10 TD) and Tanner Koziol (65 REC, 651 YDS, five TDS) are both expected to play, though running back Dean Connors is a potential opt-out with 851 yards and five scores to his name. Weigman did contribute plenty with his legs as he added 644 yards and 11 touchdowns on the ground this season, and DJ Butler may be the next man up at halfback if Connors doesn’t play. The Houston defense held opponents to 23.8 points and 366.7 yards per game, 49th and 52nd. The Cougars didn’t excel against either the run or pass but were solid against both, but they did average 1.4 takeaways per contest.
LSU vs. Houston pick, best bet
On DraftKings Sportsbook, Houston comes in as a 1.5-point favorite with -118 odds on the Moneyline. LSU sees -102 odds to win outright with the game total set at just 41.5 points.
Betting splits show around 59% of straight wagers on the Tigers to win outright and a 50/50 split between the two sides to cover. As for the total, 81% of bets favor the over tonight.
It’s a little surprising to see LSU favored by the public in the splits here — perhaps many bettors figured Kiffin would make his coaching debut tonight. That’s not the case, and given a large number of players opting out of the Texas Bowl, the talent gap between these sides may not be as large as some people assume. Houston played very good football for most of the regular season with wins over Colorado, Arizona, Arizona State and Baylor, so this program showed plenty of fight and should do so again tonight. LSU is still disjointed after the disappointing campaign and didn’t make strides on offense to end the year after scoring 13 points or fewer in four of the final five games to close the campaign.
Given the state of both rosters, I’m personally backing the Cougars to down the Tigers in the battle of the big cats tonight. Houston on the Moneyline makes sense here, if not an alt spread of -2.5 for just a smidge better value.
