There are nine games of NBA action tipping off across today’s Saturday slate. Starting at 7:00 p.m. ET, the Denver Nuggets will face off with the Orlando Magic.
Nikola Jokic has climbed to the NBA MVP favorite at +120 odds on DraftKings Sportsbook. Tonight will be a tough test for Jokic and the Nuggets tonight as they face off against a Magic team that has found its footing after a slow start to the year.
Looking at the odds for tonight’s matchup, the Nuggets enter as 4.5-point favorites and hold -198 Moneyline odds on DraftKings Sportsbook. The Magic hold +164 odds of getting the outright victory with the game total set at 234.5 points.
This article will look at a preview and prediction for the Saturday night matchup.
Nuggets vs. Magic prediction, preview
The Denver Nuggets hold a 22-8 record this season, which places them in third place in the Western Conference. They most recently produced an overtime victory over the Minnesota Timberwolves in which Nikola Jokic finished with 56 points, 16 rebounds, and 15 assists, they’ve now won eight of their last 10 matchups overall. On the season, Denver is 18-12 against the spread while the over has cashed in 20 of their 30 games played.
Nikola Jokic continues to put forth stat lines that seemed impossible as he dominates the game in his unique style. The three-time MVP is averaging 29.8 points and leads the NBA with 12.1 rebounds and 11.0 assists per game. Jamal Murray is also in the midst of arguably his most impressive season, averaging 25.4 points and 7.0 assists while shooting 46.0% on three-point attempts. Cam Johnson was diagnosed with a knee contusion this week, which will keep him out for 4-6 weeks. He joins Aaron Gordon, Christian Braun, and Tamar Bates on the injury report. Peyton Watson, Tim Hardaway Jr, Bruce Brown, Jonas Valanciunas and Spencer Jones have each had some positive flashes in Denver’s available rotation.
The Nuggets lead the NBA in scoring at 125.8 points per game. They rank first in offensive rating, are producing the best overall field-goal percentage, rank first in three-point percentage, and tally the third-most assists per game. Defensively, opponents are scoring 117.2 points per game against the Nuggets, which ranks 17th in the league. Denver ranks 20th in defensive rating, 16th in opponent field goal percentage allowed, seventh in opponent three-point percentage, and fourth in opponent rebounds allowed.
The Orlando Magic took the big swing this offseason to trade for Desmond Bane to attempt to join the contending conversation in a wide-open Eastern Conference. After some struggles out of the gates, they have climbed to 17-14 and sit in sixth place in the East. They are looking to bounce back from a frustrating loss to the Hornets in the previous game and were limited to 97 points in a loss to the Warriors on Monday. Overall, Orlando is 13-18 against the spread and the over has hit in 16 of the 31 games.
Injuries have been a factor this season with Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner playing just 14 games together so far. Wagner remains sidelined for today’s matchup with his ankle issue, along with his brother, Mo Wagner. Jalen Suggs is also considered doubtful due to a hip injury.
Banchero is averaging 20.1 points, 8.3 rebounds, and 4.3 assists per game on the season, while Desmond Bane is pitching in 19.0 points, 4.6 rebounds, and 4.5 assists with his three-point percentage climbing to 35.2%. Anthony Black has shown some exciting signs of development, posting averages of 14.4 points, 4.2 rebounds, and 3.4 assists. Goga Bitadze, Wendell Carter Jr, Tristan Da Silva, and Jase Richardson round out most of their notable depth.
As a team, Orlando is producing 116.8 points per game, which ranks 15th in the NBA. The Magic rank 11th in offensive rating, 18th in field goal percentage, 26th in three-point percentage, 11th in rebounds per game, and 14th in pace. Defensively, opponents are scoring 115.0 points per game against them, which ranks 12th. The Magic rank eighth in defensive rating, 22nd in opponent field goal percentage, and 17th in opponent three-point percentage.
Nuggets vs. Magic pick, best bet
It has felt a little bit like two steps forward, one step back for the Magic this season. On paper, the addition of Desmond Bane should have been the fix to their perimeter shooting and floor spacing issues. But they still rank 24th in three-point volume and 26th in three-point efficiency, with the lack of respect for the long-range shots continuing to clog up the driving lanes. Every time it has felt like the Magic have started to find their stride, they suffer a frustrating loss that has you reevaluating where they stack up.
This is a stark difference from this Nuggets team. They know exactly who they are as a unit, and few teams are capable of reaching the offensive peaks that Denver regularly puts on display. The injuries to Aaron Gordon, Cam Johnson, and Christian Braun are noteworthy, but Jokic creates such a high floor of offensive expectations.
My lean would be towards the over, with Orlando failing to look like the high quality defensive team that they are designed to be at any consistent rate. But I am backing the Nuggets to pick up the victory and cover the 4.5-point spread. Expect Jokic to have no trouble cracking whatever defense is thrown in his direction and for the Magic to not be able to match his level of offensive output. Denver has won eight of its last 10 games and is 18-12 against the spread on the season. Count on the Nuggets building off this and getting the outright victory by more than the five-point margin tonight.
