The NFL brings us a two-game Saturday slate in Week 17 headlined by a clash between a couple of AFC postseason competitors. Last year, the Houston Texans played a defensive masterclass to upset the Los Angeles Chargers in the Wild Card. Now, we get a rematch of that contest as C.J. Stroud and Nico Collins look to punch their team’s ticket to another playoff berth.
Here are the best Nico Collins prop bets on DraftKings Sportsbook for Texans vs. Chargers on Saturday in Week 17.
Best Nico Collins prop bets on DraftKings Sportsbook
The Texans’ offense hasn’t been a bastion of consistency or production this season, but the one stalwart who shows up week in and week out is Nico Collins. The star wideout has now eclipsed 1,000 receiving yards for the third consecutive year and leads all of the team’s weapons across the board in targets, catches and touchdowns. Among all NFL wideouts, Collins’ 113 targets rank 10th, his 68 catches rank 17th, his 1,060 yards place him sixth, and his six receiving touchdowns are tied for 15th. His excellence doesn’t stop there, either — he sits seventh in yards per reception at 15.6 and has the seventh-best receiving grade at the position via PFF’s scale.
This Week 17 matchup does raise some eyebrows, though. The Chargers boast an excellent defense that posts top-10 marks in terms of points and total yards allowed per game behind one of the league’s best secondaries. Los Angeles allows an average of just 179.3 passing yards per game, sixth-fewest, as well as the seventh-lowest yards per pass and fifth-lowest opponent completion percentage. To wideouts in particular, the Chargers fall 12th in receptions and 10th in receiving yards allowed.
On DraftKings Sportsbook, Collins’ prop bet lines are set at O/U 4.5 receptions and 65.5 receiving yards with a longest catch of 24.5 yards. His odds to score an anytime touchdown are listed at +170.
Taking many overs on receiving and passing props for the Texans today does feel somewhat difficult at a surface level especially with the Chargers’ deployment of a quality pass rush that’ll pressure C.J. Stroud and a poor offensive line throughout the day. That doesn’t mean that bettors should outright avoid Collins’ prop bet lines though. Los Angeles falls around the middle of the pack with an 8.14 aDOT, and if the secondary does move to limit the intermediate and deep game, we could see plenty of targets underneath for Houston’s top pass catchers.
Collins still sees the 19th-best target share of any player in the NFL at a smidge over 25% and will maintain a very reliable role as the top option in the pecking order of the Texans’ offense. The quick passing game will prove more valuable than ever against a quality pass rush, leading Stroud to get the ball out of his hands as fast as possible. He could hone in on Collins in that regard, allowing the receiver to haul in five catches for just the sixth time on the year, and the increased volume may actually get the top wideout over his receiving yardage prop regardless of the stingy defense.
The line of 65.5 receiving yards is the lowest line for Collins since Week 10 against Jacksonville and second-lowest of the campaign. After clearing it in eight games this year as well as six of his last eight contests, he should still get the job done. Even just one deeper completion (which he excels at) could significantly boost the outlook, so I’m not scared off by the matchup. Watch for the Texans’ top receiver to hit the over here.
Best Bet: Nico Collins over 65.5 receiving yards (-110)
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