Week 17 of the NFL season kicked off with a trio of games on Christmas Day, but the fun isn’t over yet. On Saturday, two more matchups take place. The latter of the pair kicks off at 8 p.m. EST as the Green Bay Packers welcome the Baltimore Ravens to the iconic Lambeau Field for what could be a snowy affair to close out the day. However, the home team will operate without its starting quarterback with Jordan Love out, leaving Malik Willis in his stead to battle with Lamar Jackson.
Read on for a Ravens vs. Packers prediction and pick on DraftKings Sportsbook for Saturday’s contest in NFL Week 17.
Ravens vs. Packers prediction, preview
Baltimore Ravens
The stakes can’t get much higher for the Baltimore Ravens with the season on the line. At 7-8, it’s been a disappointing campaign that likely comes to a premature end without a postseason berth unless they win their last two games and get some help from the current AFC North leaders, the Pittsburgh Steelers. With that in mind, the Ravens’ backs are truly against the wall here. The offense averages 23.9 points (13th) and 324.9 yards per game (18th), but hasn’t scored more than 24 points in a game since November 9 against the Minnesota Vikings. The upside of this offense has been capped out with Lamar Jackson still looking far from his typical self and making fewer plays with his legs. Baltimore does still have one of the NFL’s best rushing attacks with 147.9 yards per contest (third-best) as Derrick Henry enters this game with 90+ yards via the ground in three straight appearances, but the passing attack produces just 177.1 yards on average (27th) with little support from weapons beyond Zay Flowers. Defensively, the Ravens allow 23.2 points (16th) and 351.6 yards per game (27th) but have played somewhat better than the numbers suggest as of late. They’re also seventh in opponent third-down conversion rate, but splash plays are somewhat hard to come by with the second-worst sack percentage of any team and just 1.2 takeaways per contest.
Green Bay Packers
Unlike their opponent, the Packers have secured a playoff berth thanks to the Detroit Lions’ loss at the hands of the Minnesota Vikings on Christmas Day. With their postseason hopes alive and well, this game carries less pressure but may still be a very difficult test as Green Bay manages life without Micah Parsons (ACL) as well as Jordan Love (concussion), the former of whom is sidelined for the remainder of the year. With Love out, Malik Willis steps under center as the starting quarterback after completing 81.8% of his throws for 121 yards and one touchdown in an unexpected appearance during last week’s win. He led the offense admirably, and the unit as a whole averages 24.3 points and 344.7 yards per game (both 12th). The Packers convert third downs at a league-best rate and pound the rock with Josh Jacobs in the backfield, though they’re only 14th in rushing yards per game with 122.0. The passing yardage may regress some without Love working as the gunslinger, but Willis can certainly run things in Matt LaFleur’s system while throwing to a cast that includes Romeo Doubs, Luke Musgrave and Christian Watson (questionable; shoulder/illness). On the defensive side, Green Bay allows 20.9 points (ninth-best) and 301.6 yards per game (sixth-best) along with the 12th-lowest opponent third-down conversion rate. The unit ranks well against both the run and the pass but falls 21st in sack percentage and forces just 0.9 takeaways per game.
Ravens vs. Packers pick, best bet
On DraftKings Sportsbook, the Packers are 3.5-point favorites at home with -198 odds to win on the Moneyline. The Ravens are listed at +164 to win outright with a game total of 38.5 points. As far as betting splits go, 69% of straight bets favor Green Bay while 68% are on the home side to cover. On the total, 52% of the wagers favor the under.
If you’re thinking some variation of, “Well there’s a backup quarterback for the Packers so they don’t really stand a chance,” stop and listen. Malik Willis had a bit of a reputation as the Will Levis of Marcus Mariotas during his time with the Tennessee Titans, but once he made his way to the Packers last season, his play greatly improved. Last season, he ranked second among all NFL quarterbacks with at least 50 pass attempts with a 74.1% completion rate, throwing for 550 yards and three touchdowns with another 138 yards and one score via the ground. He’s been good in limited work this season as well and genuinely looks the part of a starting QB in this league, albeit on a small sample. Against a Ravens defense that doesn’t generate a ton of pressure, he’ll be insulated behind the run game and have time to make his reads on likely limited volume. While falling behind on the scoreboard could pose a problem if it leads to a more aggressive game script, there’s no reason Willis can’t exist within the confines of the offensive system and lead his team to an efficient win.
The two real threats are A) a huge game from Henry and B) a positive regression to the mean for Jackson. The former feels more likely than the latter with this Green Bay defense somewhat cratering against the run with 100+ rushing yards allowed in three of the last four games and five of eight since Week 9, but a run-happy script from Baltimore means the Ravens can’t waste possessions themselves. Jackson, meanwhile, has thrown for just 251 yards over his last two games combined and hasn’t eclipsed 220 yards but once since Week 3, and he’s remained under 30 rushing yards in all but one game since early November. He’s not himself at the moment, so it’s likely up to his weapons to create plays themselves.
The pace of play should be slow here with limited passing volume, so the low total of 38.5 points doesn’t even seem unreasonable. Watch for plenty of rush attempts as these sides look to control the pace of play, keeping this game under the total in this spot.
