There are some great games on the NFL Week 17 slate as the regular season closes its second half. With plenty of ways to get in on the action on DraftKings Sportsbook, this is a look at my best bets for NFL Week 17.
NFL Week 17 Best Bets
Browns +3 vs. Steelers
The Browns potentially have a chance to play spoiler against their archrivals on Sunday. If the Ravens upset the Packers on Saturday, the Steelers need to win to clinch the AFC North. That would put a lot of added pressure on Pittsburgh, in an always-tough road environment in Cleveland this time of year. The Browns are in a good position even if the Ravens lose on Saturday. If that’s the case, Pittsburgh will wake up on Sunday morning knowing it has already won the division. That would likely lead to an ultra-conservative game plan from Pittsburgh, potentially holding out any banged-up players or pulling starters early.
Cleveland should be able to compete well against Pittsburgh even if both teams are at full strength. The Browns have one of the best defenses in the NFL, ranking top five in EPA/play and success rate. In a hostile road environment in winter weather, against a scary defense led by Myles Garrett searching for his record-breaking sacks, it will be tough for the Pittsburgh offense to sustain any success. The Browns are coming off a good performance where they kept it within three points at home against the Bills and they have been much more competitive at home than on the road this season. They should be able to keep this tight against their division rivals, with a great chance to pull off the upset.
Buccaneers vs. Dolphins o44.5
These are two teams with potential for offensive explosion, but questionable defensive play. While both teams have been inconsistent, there is a lot of offensive talent between De’Von Achane, Jaylen Waddle, Mike Evans, Bucky Irving and more. Quinn Ewers played well in his first career start, outside of throwing a couple of interceptions. That type of quarterback play, which isn’t far off from what Baker Mayfield has been displaying as of late, is ideal for an over. Both quarterbacks should be able to move the ball down the field, but they are also both liable to throw a bad interception at some point. That can set up short fields or even defensive scores for opposing offenses. These teams are both allowing over 24 points per game this season and that should continue this week, allowing this game to go over the total.
Bills ML vs. Eagles
The Bills have won four straight games heading into this week. If the team can keep winning these final two weeks, the pressure will be on the Patriots to clinch the AFC East with two wins of their own. After a shaky start to the season offensively, the reigning MVP and his offense have come on strong in the second half of the season. Buffalo ranks second in the NFL in offensive EPA/play and third in offensive success rate this season. The Bills can move the ball against any team in the NFL, even a tough Eagles defense.
On the other side of the ball, the Bills have not been as strong. However, they should be able to slow down a broken Eagles offense. Philadelphia ranks 21st in the NFL in offensive success rate this season and has not had any sustained success on that side of the ball. The Bills can sell out to stop the run and get after Jalen Hurts with no fear of a downfield passing attack. The Bills should be able to grind it on the ground and completely control the game in front of their home crowd. Josh Allen just always finds a way to win these late-season games in Buffalo. Since 2020, Allen is 14-1 at home in December or January regular-season games. The Bills should keep the pressure on the Patriots another week by taking down the Eagles in Week 17.
