The Minnesota Golden Gophers host the New Mexico Lobos on Friday, December 26 at 4:30 p.m. ET. Below, our simulation breaks down the latest odds, betting splits, key stats, and the best ways to bet this matchup on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Game Odds on DraftKings Sportsbook
Spread: Minnesota -1.5 (-108) | New Mexico +1.5 (-112)
Moneyline: Minnesota -120 | New Mexico +100
Total: 44.5 (-105 / -115)
Betting Splits for Minnesota vs. New Mexico
- Spread splits: 68% of bets / 54% of handle on Minnesota -1.5
- Moneyline splits: 66% of bets / 53% of handle on Minnesota -120
- Total splits: 64% of bets / 71% of handle on Over 44.5
The public is leaning toward Minnesota on both the spread and the Moneyline, but the larger gap between tickets and handle on New Mexico suggests some sharper interest on the underdog side; meanwhile, the Over has both strong ticket volume and even stronger handle backing it.
Stats Snapshot (2025)
- New Mexico ATS: 7-5 (avg cover margin: 5.67)
- Minnesota ATS: 4-8 (avg cover margin: -0.87)
- New Mexico efficiency: offense PPA 0.1824; defense PPA 0.1118
- Minnesota efficiency: offense PPA 0.1088; defense PPA 0.1766
- New Mexico explosiveness: offense 1.2645; defense 1.2333
- Minnesota explosiveness: offense 1.1447; defense 1.2486
- Havoc (disruption rate): New Mexico offense havoc 0.138 vs. Minnesota defense havoc 0.176; Minnesota offense havoc 0.158 vs. New Mexico defense havoc 0.172
- Situational note: Minnesota’s defense has been more vulnerable on passing downs (passing downs defense PPA 0.3760), a potential opening for New Mexico if it can stay out of obvious passing situations.
Key Stats to Know
- New Mexico offense profile: success rate 0.4187 with a stronger passing-down PPA (0.3292) than standard-down PPA (0.1201).
- Minnesota defense profile: allows a 0.4375 defensive success rate and has a higher overall defensive PPA allowed (0.1766), indicating more consistent opponent efficiency.
- Trenches: New Mexico’s offense stuff rate (0.1369) is lower (better) than Minnesota’s offense stuff rate (0.1957), while both defenses show solid stuff rates (New Mexico 0.2245; Minnesota 0.2188).
How to Bet Minnesota vs. New Mexico
- Consider the underdog ATS angle: New Mexico is 7-5 ATS, while Minnesota is 4-8 ATS, which matters in a short spread game (Minnesota -1.5).
- Market vs. money nuance: Minnesota is the popular side (tickets), but New Mexico is drawing relatively more handle than bets on both spread and Moneyline, a common sign that larger wagers are taking the dog.
- Total approach: The Over 44.5 is getting 71% of the handle, so if you’re playing an Under, you’re going against the strongest money signal in the splits.
- Game script note: With a tight spread, late-game variance (turnovers, special teams, two-minute situations) often makes +1.5 and +100 live options, especially if you believe New Mexico can win on a handful of explosive plays.
Players to Watch (Most-Bet Props)
- Darius Taylor – First TD Scorer (+550): Listed as the first favorite in the game’s First TD Scorer market, and also shows up as the top option for 1st Minnesota TD scorer.
- Javon Tracy – First TD Scorer (+800): The second favorite in the First TD Scorer market, a popular way to express a Minnesota scoring script without laying a short Moneyline.
- Le’Meke Brockington – First TD Scorer (+950): Another top-tier option in the First TD Scorer market if you’re hunting plus-money exposure tied to Minnesota finding the end zone early.
Popular Parlays on DraftKings Sportsbook
Featured Parlay:
Another parlay offering:
Prediction & Best Bets
Projected final score: New Mexico 24, Minnesota 23
Moneyline: New Mexico
Spread: New Mexico +1.5
Total: Over 44.5
After reviewing the projections and models from our simulation, the DKN team believes New Mexico’s stronger 2025 ATS profile and Minnesota’s defensive efficiency concerns make the underdog the better value in a near coin-flip spread. The total is tight, but the market’s heavy handle on the Over plus Minnesota’s passing-down defensive numbers point toward enough big plays to nudge this game past 44.5.