When the Milwaukee Bucks travel to face the Memphis Grizzlies for an 8 p.m. ET clash on Friday night, the emphasis won’t be on who’s on the court but who might be missing. It’s possible — though unlikely — that Giannis Antetokounmpo, out since December 3 with a calf strain, has played his last game with the Bucks, and while Ja Morant hasn’t played his last game with the Grizzlies, it’s certainly possible that he could be on a different roster at the start of the 2026-27 season.
Antetokounmpo remains without a timetable for return, though he’s recently returned to limited basketball activity, and Gary Trent Jr. is questionable with a calf contusion. Memphis’ injury report is long: Brandon Clarke was the most recent Grizzlies player to sustain a calf strain, just two games into his comeback from knee surgery, and Vince Williams Jr. remains out with a knee injury, so Memphis could have no guard or center depth if Morant, who’s questionable with an ankle injury, doesn’t end up playing.
Even with all the injuries, the Grizzlies are 5.5-point favorites at DraftKings Sportsbook, with the point total set to 229.5. Milwaukee is +170 on the Moneyline. Below, I’ll break down tonight’s clash and offer my prediction.
Milwaukee Bucks at Memphis Grizzlies preview, prediction
The onus is on Bucks general manager Jon Horst and coach Doc Rivers to build a competent team that can compete for a second championship alongside Antetokounmpo, and Milwaukee just hasn’t been that this season. Even with Antetokounmpo appearing in 17 of their 30 games and playing at an MVP level on the court, the Bucks are just 12-18 and in 11th place in the Eastern Conference. They could still go on to make a playoff push once Antetokounmpo gets healthy, but giving a near-max deal to Myles Turner, who’s averaging 12.4 points and 5.5 rebounds per game, hasn’t proven wise. Milwaukee has found surprisingly solid guard play in Ryan Rollins (17.2 points, 5.8 assists and 1.6 steals per game on 48-39-77 shooting splits) and Kevin Porter Jr. (20.4-7.5-2.4 on 50-48-84 splits), but everything else has been a disaster.
Memphis can be better described as middling than bad, as a recent hot streak has propelled it to ninth in the tougher Western Conference. In fact, the Grizzlies have the fourth-best record in the West against teams below .500, behind only the San Antonio Spurs (14-0), Oklahoma City Thunder (19-1), and Minnesota Timberwolves (15-2), but the fact that they’ve gone just 2-14 against teams at .500 or better has condemned them to a Play-In Tournament spot. Due to all of the injuries, they’ve had pretty well-rounded production, with eight different players averaging at least 10 points per game. Cam Spencer has been the biggest positive surprise, as he’s leading the league in three-point percentage (49.3%).
Bucks at Grizzlies pick, best bet
It’s impossible to analyze Milwaukee without considering Antetokounmpo’s absence. With the Greek Freak on the court, it has had a 126.3 offensive rating, 2.4 points per 100 possessions better than the league-leading Denver Nuggets, but without him, that has plummeted all the way to 108.4, just one point per 100 possessions better than the cellar-dwelling Indiana Pacers. Defensively, the Bucks have been equally mediocre with or without Antetokounmpo on the court, but having a former Defensive Player of the Year never hurts. Unsurprisingly, Milwaukee has lost five of its eight games since Antetokounmpo was injured (including the December 3 win over the Detroit Pistons in which he left after just three minutes because of the injury). A 45-point demolition at the hands of the woeful Brooklyn Nets was the low point.
The Bucks’ interior defense has actually held up well without Antetokounmpo, as over the course of his latest absence, they’ve allowed the ninth-fewest attempts at the rim and the second-fewest in the non-restricted paint while limiting opponents to a near-average mark from the restricted area and the worst accuracy from floater range. Thankfully for Milwaukee, that’s not a strength of Memphis’: since losing its center, Zach Edey, the Grizzlies have averaged the sixth-fewest tries at the rim and shot the sixth-worst percentage. Across that same span, Memphis’ rim protection has been surprisingly stout, while the Bucks have produced the second-fewest restricted-area tries since Antetokounmpo went down, though they have hit such shots at the highest rate in the league. The Grizzlies aren’t a good rebounding team without Edey (49.1%), but Milwaukee is even worse (46.4%) without Antetokoummpo.
With neither team likely to get much going inside without its big man, shooting, ball security, and discipline will be key. The Bucks have been sloppier with the ball without Antetokounmpo than Memphis has been without Edey, and they’ve also forced far fewer steals. Both teams have been about league-average in terms of fouling, but Milwaukee fouls more frequently. Shooting-wise, the Grizzlies also have an edge: they’ve produced more uncontested looks and connected at a higher rate, and while both teams have given up a ton of wide-open triples, the Bucks have benefited from their opponents being slightly colder. Both teams have unsustainably hot players: since Edey’s injury, Spencer has made 68.8% of his wide-open threes and Santi Aldama has made 57.1%, and without Antetokounmpo, Rollins (44.4% on wide-open looks) has been slightly better than usual. Spencer has a long track record of strong shooting, though, having connected at a clip north of 40% at every level, so I’d bank on him keeping it up to some extent.
Certain matchups might keep Milwaukee in the game — as of late, Memphis’ two leading scorers have been big men in Jaren Jackson Jr. and Aldama, so the Bucks will be able to lean on their solid post defense — but Milwaukee has leaned most heavily on its guards, and in Jaylen Wells, the Grizzlies have the most active perimeter defender on the floor. Plus, a potential Morant return could help: while the former second overall pick has had a terrible season, he at least puts pressure on the rim by driving at the league’s 12th-highest frequency, which could open up more wide-open shots from Spencer, and he still gets to the free throw line at an above-average rate. Add that to Memphis’ significant home-court advantage (a 13.1 points/100 possessions net swing) and it seems reasonable to expect the Grizzlies to cover the spread.
