It’s difficult to think of a better start to the season for Oklahoma City. An NBA-leading 26-4 record, the sport’s top defense, and another MVP-caliber campaign from Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. If there’s one blemish for the defending champions, it’s the Spurs, their Southwest division foes. San Antonio has earned two straight wins against the Thunder, including a 130-110 blowout on Tuesday.
Can OKC exact some revenge on an up-and-coming rival this Christmas? Below is my prediction and pick for Thursday’s game between the San Antonio Spurs and Oklahoma City Thunder.
The Thunder are 8.5-point favorites (-118) over the Spurs on DraftKings Sportsbook, with the total set at 235.5 points. Oklahoma City is favored at -355 on the moneyline.
Spurs vs. Thunder prediction, preview
What’s been the key to San Antonio’s early success vs. OKC? Several factors, including the presence of franchise cornerstone Victor Wembanyama. The Frenchman, even while operating on a minutes limit, has been a difference-maker for the Spurs. During his two appearances against the Thunder, Wemby is averaging 17.0 points, 7.0 rebounds, 2.5 assists and 1.0 blocks in just under 22 minutes per game.
However, the center is far from the only reason for San Antonio’s 22-7 record. The Spurs wield a dangerous backcourt, led by De’Aaron Fox, Stephon Castle, and Dylan Harper. Each member of the trio is liable to go off on any given night. In terms of depth, the Spurs are able to bring on over-qualified subs such as Keldon Johnson and Luke Kornet. The latter of the two gives San Antonio the needed size to exploit Oklahoma City’s greatest weakness. The Thunder are allowing 54.2 rebounds per game to opponents, tied for the NBA’s tenth-worst mark.
With all that being said, Oklahoma City remains an absolute juggernaut. The team ranks first in defensive rating (105.7) and fifth in offensive rating (120.4). Leading the charge, as always, is Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. The reigning MVP is putting together another phenomenal season. Through 29 games, he’s posted 32.5 points, 4.8 rebounds and 6.6 assists while shooting 56% from the field. In addition, the guard is knocking down a career-best 44% of his three-point attempts, a major step up in efficiency.
Much like San Antonio, the Thunder are more than just SGA. This supporting cast runs deep, with up to ten quality NBA rotation pieces. The duo of Chet Holmgren and Jalen Williams are essential to OKC’s chances at earning a Christmas day victory. It’s worth mentioning that the former has had difficulty in this matchup before. Holmgren is averaging just 14.4 points over seven career meetings with the Spurs.
Spurs vs. Thunder pick, best bet
The final score doesn’t tell the whole story when it comes to Tuesday’s matchup. These two rivals were fairly close until the Spurs broke things open to start the fourth quarter. It was players not named Wembanyama that proved to be the difference. Castle, Harrison Barnes and Devin Vassell combined for 61 points, while Harper tallied ten assists. Now on the road, things should prove more difficult for the Spurs this afternoon.
This line keeps on moving in favor of the visitors, and it’s easy to see why. The betting public is eager to fade the defending champs in favor of a team that’s had their number. Still, don’t forget the historic pace Oklahoma City is on this season. A Thunder squad with something to prove will look to remind everyone that they’re the ones to beat.
