It’s a holly, jolly holiday because we have three NFL games in action on Thursday. In the afternoon window, the Detroit Lions try to keep their slim playoff hopes alive with just a 6% shot to make the postseason, per The Athletic’s tracker. They’ll head to another Great Lakes state to face to NFC North rival Minnesota Vikings, setting up a high-stakes matchup with the season on the line.
On DraftKings Sportsbook, Detroit is a strong -7.5 favorite with -375 odds on the Moneyline. Minnesota comes in with +295 ML odds at home with the game total set at 43.5 combined points.
Fill your cup with eggnog and settle in on the couch — here are the top player prop bets on DraftKings Sportsbook for Lions vs. Vikings in Week 17.
Lions vs. Vikings best prop bets
Jahmyr Gibbs over 75.5 rushing yards (-113)
The Vikings’ defense is playing quite well this season overall, holding opponents to the fifth-fewest yards per game and 11th-fewest points. However, Brian Flores’ unit looks far better against the pass thanks to their ability to pressure quarterbacks than they do against the run. Minnesota allows 127.6 rushing yards per contest, good for 24th in the league. While some of the underlying metrics suggest the run defense is actually better than that yardage total implies (especially since opponents often play with a lead, meaning more rush attempts against the Vikings), this is still something we can target on Thursday. If anything, that trend likely falls in favor of the Lions’ halfbacks because Detroit’s offense can put up points in a hurry to force a more run-happy game script.
What’s the play we’re looking at here? Jahmyr Gibbs has been a little boom-or-bust this season, especially after logging just seven carries for two rushing yards last week. However, I’m unafraid to take the over on his rushing yards line in this spot. He’s only gone over 75.5 rushing yards five times on the season, but the potential for a heavy workload against a Minnesota offense led by UDFA quarterback Max Brosmer simply feels too good to ignore. Gibbs averages 73.5 rushing yards per game (though that mark remains a bit inflated due to some massive outings) on 5.3 YPC, the third-best number per rush of any halfback to take at least 50 carries this season. He’s one of the NFL’s premier big-play threats and can turn any touch into a house call, so assuming he sees in the range of 15+ rush attempts in a game the Lions should comfortably lead, going over 75.5 rushing yards feels more likely than not.
Jameson Williams over 4.5 receptions (+124)
Earlier this season, plenty of chatter filled the airwaves suggesting that Lions wideout Jameson Williams wouldn’t live up to expectations after signing a hefty three-year, $80 million contract extension. For a time, it seemed those comments may actually be proven correct. That changed around midseason though — since Week 9, the speedster sits fourth among all players at his position with 717 receiving yards, good for 89.6 YDS/GM. Over that same span, he’s seen 7.6 targets per contest while averaging five catches, just in line with what we need to exceed his O/U line this week.
Against a Vikings secondary allowing the third-fewest passing yards per game to opponents, it’s probably best to stick to a volume-based prop for Williams. With that in mind, it makes a ton of sense to look toward over 4.5 catches. He’s hauled in at least five balls in four straight contests, including five of his last seven outings. Back in Week 9 against Minnesota, Williams caught four of his six targets. On Thursday, he should see similar volume, if not even better than last time while Amon-Ra St. Brown works through a knee injury on the short week. Williams has become one of this team’s most reliable playmakers, so watch for Jared Goff to call his number often.
