Christmas football gets started early with an old-school NFC East grudge match. Although the Cowboys and Commanders have little to play for, the hate in this rivalry runs deep. Dallas’ stacked offense is looking to put up some points in a nationally televised affair. On the flip side, Washington will hope to earn an upset win for its hometown fans.
In this marquee matchup, which players will exceed expectations? The Cowboys enter Thursday as seven-point favorites (-110) on DraftKings Sportsbook, with the over/under set at 50.5 total points. Dallas is favored at -325 on the moneyline, while Washington has +260 odds at a victory.
Cowboys at Commanders Best Prop Bets
Jake Ferguson 5+ receptions (-117)
Jake Ferguson’s terrific 2025-26 campaign has hit a speed bump. Over the past two weeks, he’s only snagged a combined five catches for 35 yards. That’s a notable decline compared to the tight end’s superb season-long stats. Through 15 games, the veteran has recorded 80 receptions for 589 yards and seven touchdowns. Still, consistent production can be difficult in Dallas; wideouts CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens will always demand targets.
With that being said, it’s difficult to envision a third straight letdown performance from Ferguson. The 26-year-old is still taking the field for nearly 70% of the Cowboys’ offensive snaps. This week, Dallas takes on a putrid Commanders defense allowing the second-most yards to opponents. When these teams last met in October, Ferguson notched seven catches. With all eyes on Lamb and Pickens, the middle of the field should be wide open.
Jacory Croskey-Merritt anytime touchdown scorer (-120)
Washington’s backfield has been an enigma ever since Austin Ekeler’s season-ending Achilles tear in September. Entering the season, Jacory Croskey-Merritt was seen as the veteran’s heir apparent. However, the training camp superstar has had an up-and-down regular season. Over 15 games, the rookie has gained 671 rushing yards and six touchdowns. Since Week 11, fellow running back Chris Rodriguez Jr. has garnered more snaps when healthy.
Rodriguez Jr. made his return on Sunday following a one-game injury absence. Still, on a short week in a lost year, a limited workload makes sense. Should that occur, Croskey-Merritt would stand to benefit. It helps that Washington will take on a Cowboys defense allowing the second-most rushing touchdowns this season. To make matters even worse for Dallas, Pro Bowl defensive tackle Quinnen Williams (concussion) is questionable to play. JCM has found the end zone in each of his previous two outings; he’s poised to do so again this week.
UPDATE: Chris Rodriguez Jr. (illness) has been ruled out of Thursday’s contest.
