In the final matchup of the three-game Christmas slate, the Kansas City Chiefs will face off with the Denver Broncos.
If you had guessed coming into the season which of these AFC West teams had a playoff opportunity clinched heading into Week 17, your guess likely would have been the Chiefs. But Kansas City has dropped to 6-9 on the year and has been eliminated from postseason contention. Patrick Mahomes suffered a torn ACL, and Travis Kelce appears to be seriously considering retirement; this has proven to be a bit of a reset year for the Chiefs. In contrast, the Denver Broncos enter with a 12-3 record on the year, and the clearest path to the top seed in the AFC.
Looking at the odds for the matchup, the Broncos enter as 13.5-point favorites and hold -1050 odds on the Moneyline on DraftKings Sportsbook. The Chiefs hold +675 odds of getting the outright victory, with the game total set at 36.5 points.
There are plenty of ways to get involved in the action beyond just backing a side. This article will look at my three favorite prop bets on DraftKings Sportsbook for the Week 17 Christmas matchup between the Broncos and Chiefs.
Broncos at Chiefs Best Prop Bets
Chris Oladokun Under 17.5 Completions (-117)
The outlook for the Kansas City Chiefs was set in stone when Patrick Mahomes went down with his ACL injury, Gardner Minshew joining him with a knee injury of his own only worsened things. Chris Oladokun will step in as the starting quarterback with just 16 career pass attempts in the NFL to his name at this point. The former seventh-round pick by the Steelers started his college career at South Florida before transferring to Samford and South Dakota State. There is limited tape on him at the NFL level, and his outlook is difficult to project for this matchup.
But the 28-year-old will walk into a brutal matchup against the Broncos this week. Denver has one of the top defenses in the league and enters this matchup ranking fifth in points allowed and fourth in total yards conceded. It also leads the league in net yards per pass attempt allowed, and has sacked opposing quarterbacks more than any other team in the league. Expect Denver to carry a bit of a chip on its shoulder into this matchup after it was picked apart for a season-worst 34 points allowed by Trevor Lawrence and the Jaguars last week.
Oladokun looked respectable in his opportunities last week, but the Broncos’ defense will provide much more resistance than the Titans were able to. Count on the pressure the Broncos will generate against an already vulnerable Kansas City offensive line to prove bothersome throughout. It will be an uphill battle for any sort of consistent production for the inexperienced quarterback. Denver needs to continue producing victories to lock down the top seed and expect its defense to prevent Oladokun from ever finding his stride. The 17.5-completion line feels like a high bar to reach, considering Mahomes completed fewer in four games this year, so expect Oladokun to be held below this number.
RJ Harvey to Record 100+ Rushing & Receiving Yards (+255)
On the offensive side of the ball, the Broncos selected RJ Harvey in the second round of the previous NFL Draft. J.K. Dobbins going down with injury has opened the door for an expanded opportunity, and it has become increasingly evident that Harvey may have been the most talented running back anyway. On the season overall, the North Carolina product has rushed for 469 yards and added 318 receiving yards, along with 11 touchdowns.
Over the past four games, Harvey has averaged 4.0 yards per carry with five total touchdowns. After receiving more than seven carries just once in the first 10 games, he has done that in four of the past five weeks. This streak was snapped in the previous game, with Harvey having just seven carries, but he made up for this with a career-high 71 receiving yards, along with his 50 rushing yards. He has recorded over 100+ combined rushing and receiving yards in two of the last three weeks.
Kansas City has an overall solid defense, but it has faded a bit down the stretch. It allowed 26 points and 376 total yards of offense just last week to the Titans, including Tony Pollard rushing for over 100 yards against it. Denver is a comfortable favorite, and the expectation will be that it will play with a lead throughout. Expect this to result in more opportunities for RJ Harvey and for the rookie to make the most of his chances with the ball. His recent involvement in the passing game has me opting for the combined rushing and receiving yards. The standard prop line is set at 74.5 combined rushing and receiving yards, but I am backing Harvey to crack triple digits for the third time in the past four weeks.
Travis Kelce Anytime Touchdown (+425)
This week could mark the final game Travis Kelce ever plays at Arrowhead Stadium. There is sure to be plenty of conversation surrounding his future with two weeks remaining and next week being played in Las Vegas. In his age-36 season, Kelce has pulled in 68 receptions for 803 receiving yards and five touchdowns.
The biggest hurdle to this hitting would be the concern that the Chiefs do not find the end zone at all. But, narrative aside, this is an intriguing matchup for Kelce. Denver has a strong overall defense, but it has been a bit vulnerable to opposing tight ends. On the season overall, tight ends are averaging 5.6 receptions for 61.9 yards when facing the Broncos. They have given up six touchdowns to opposing tight ends, which is a big chunk considering they have allowed just 17 passing touchdowns all year, the fourth-fewest in the league.
Kelce was able to find the end zone in his first matchup with the Broncos this year. The outlook changes without Mahomes, but count on him being the top red-zone option for Kansas City whenever it is within range. Even at full strength, Kansas City is a bit limited in the talent level of its pass catchers. This is especially the case with Rashee Rice banged up. Count on Andy Reid getting creative and leaning on Kelce as the top red-zone option, even if this takes digging deeper in the playbook. Between the narrative, the matchup and the lack of actual touchdown threats on this Chiefs roster, I am taking the +425 swing for Kelce to reach the end zone for the sixth time this season.
