Christmas Day delivers a five-game NBA schedule, and the Dallas Mavericks visit the Golden Warriors in the middle of the basketball feast. Each team has plenty of storylines and drama in their rotation right now, but also comes with many intriguing players at different points in their careers. The game tips off at 5:00 p.m. ET, so let’s take a look at some of the top player prop bets from this matchup to consider on DraftKings Sportsbook.
In the overall matchup, the Warriors are 9.5-point home favorites, with the game total set at 228.5 points.
The Warriors are 15-15 at exactly .500, while going 9-4 at home and picking up back-to-back wins to start their homestand against the Suns and Magic. The Mavericks are starting a three-game road trip after getting an impressive 131-130 win at home against the Nuggets on Tuesday. Just before that, though, they dropped road games to the Sixers, Jazz and Pelicans, and they are only 12-19 on the season due to a 3-9 road record.
Let’s dive into this matchup and find a few of my top player prop bets for this fun Christmas contest.
Mavericks at Warriors Best Prop Bets on DraftKings Sportsbook
Cooper Flagg over 30.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists (-114)
Flagg is averaging 29.4 PRA (points, rebounds and assists) in his 30 games this season, but in Game No. 31, I like his chances to get at least 31 PRA.
Flagg has averaged 22.8 points, 6.5 rebounds and 4.5 assists over his last 16 games for 33.8 PRA, and he has gone over this prop line in five of his last six games and has at least 30 PRA in nine of his last 12.
He is coming off an outstanding game on Tuesday, and he should be ready to add to his highlight reel with his first Christmas contest in the NBA.
Quinten Post over 15.5 Points + Rebounds (-116)
The Warriors have been giving Post more time and usage over the last few games with Draymond Green struggling to get along with both the refs (ejection) and his coach, who sent him to the locker room early in the team’s last game. Green’s status is uncertain for this game, but Post has been producing well over this number on a regular basis with or without Draymond.
Post has at least 20 points and rebounds in five of his last six games, and the 25-year-old from the Netherlands is averaging 10.7 points and 5.3 rebounds for 16 points and rebounds over his last 14 games.
He made nine starts in that span and has started each of the last seven games for Golden State.
With Anthony Davis working down low for the Mavs, Post will have a tough test on Christmas, but he’s been doing so well lately that I expect him to go over this prop line against Dallas.
Jimmy Butler under 4.5 assists (-140)
Butler is averaging 4.7 assists per game this season, but he has been under this prop line in four straight games, since Stephen Curry has returned and taken on his more typical workload.
With Curry on the floor, Butler has fewer playmaking responsibilities, and recently, he has been playing more in the frontcourt, doing more work on defense and on the glass while the team plays slightly smaller.
If Green continues to be in a reduced role, that could continue the trend of Butler playing more in the frontcourt and less in the backcourt.
Bonus Parlay Pick: Naji Marshall over 13.5 points (-112)
If you’re looking to use these props to create a Same Game Parlay (SPG) or an SPGx, one other leg you can add to the mix is the over on Marshall’s points. The four legs combine to be a +900 SGP as you can see below.
Marshall has scored at least 15 points in nine straight games while filling in different gaps in the rotation. While the rotation is uncertain at this point, Marshall has been consistent enough to back to get to 14 points to inject some rocket fuel into your Christmas SGP.
