Two more weeks of the regular season. Those players and teams that don’t play hard should be arrested for treason. I kid, I kid. I get it, for they no longer have a reason to make every pass a completion. Mentally, emotionally and physically, they are beaten, dreaming about the soon-to-be vacation in the Caribbean. So we must focus on those who radiate beacons of light. Running around the field like motivated demons. More often than not, they will be vets that are seasoned. Hopefully they do not crumble like Lehman, forcing our lineups into extinction.
We’ve got nine games on this main slate. Per DraftKings Sportsbook, four games have a spread of three points or less. The biggest favorite is NE -13.5 over NYJ. Three games have a total of at least 45 points. There are two games with a total below 40: PIT/CLE (34.5) and NO/TEN (39.5). There are seven home dogs.
Set your DraftKings fantasy football lineups here: NFL $2.25M Fantasy Football Millionaire [$1M to 1st].
Quarterback
Stud
Trevor Lawrence, Jacksonville Jaguars at Indianapolis Colts ($6,100) – For the first 10 games of the season, Lawrence and the Jaguars offense were definitely meh. New coach. New pieces. New roles. Lawrence threw one or fewer touchdowns in all but two of those games. In the last five games, though, Lawrence has thrown at least two touchdowns in all of those contests. In three of those, he’s finished with at least three and a high of five touchdowns! Hot diggidy! Now he gets to face a Colts defense that was just eviscerated by Brock Purdy. The Jaguars currently lead the AFC South and are the third seed in the AFC, but Houston is only one game behind for the division while the Jaguars are only a game behind the top two seeds in the conference.
Other Options – Drake Maye ($6,800), Joe Burrow ($6,500)
Value
Jacoby Brissett, Arizona Cardinals at Cincinnati Bengals ($5,700) – It finally happened. Brissett had put up over 20 FPTS in nine straight starts, but last week, the streak was broken as he finished with only 11.6 FPTS. I’m going right back to the well with Brissett this week, though, as the matchup is a good one. First off, the Bengals offense will likely be scoring points in this one, which should keep Brissett in aggressive mode. In addition, the Bengals pass defense has been one of the most generous this season, posting the fifth-highest EPA per dropback with 31 passing touchdowns allowed, the third-most. Cincinnati has the sixth-lowest pressure rate and the 25 sacks are tied for the second-fewest.
Other Options – Baker Mayfield ($5,600), Tyler Shough ($5,200)
Running Back
Stud
Saquon Barkley, Philadelphia Eagles at Buffalo Bills ($7,600) – The Buffalo Bills defense was built to play with a lead and essentially counter Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs. Ruh roh, as the Eagles want to ground-and-pound, and the matchup for Philadelphia doesn’t get much better this week, as the Bills have allowed the second-highest EPA per carry with a whopping 5.4 yards per carry and 24 rushing touchdowns allowed, the most in the NFL. 1 + 1 = 2.
Other Options – De’Von Achane ($8,500), James Cook III ($8,000), Chase Brown ($7,400), Travis Etienne ($7,100), Jaylen Warren ($6,600), Ashton Jeanty ($6,100)
Value
Kenneth Gainwell, Pittsburgh Steelers at Cleveland Browns ($5,600) – Gainwell and Jaylen Warren are splitting the running back snaps for Pittsburgh, but Gainwell is the preferred passing down back. He has 72 targets on the season compared to 40 for Warren. Over the last three weeks, Gainwell has garnered seven targets in all three contests. With DK Metcalf out, much of the passing game will likely flow through Gainwell. In addition, the Browns rush defense has been porous with no Maliek Collins in the middle, so Gainwell should feast there as well. He’s put up double-digit FPTS in five of the last six games with a high of 29.5 FPTS.
Other Options – Rhamondre Stevenson ($5,900), Kenneth Walker III ($5,800), Tony Pollard ($5,500), Tyjae Spears ($5,000)
Wide Receiver
Stud
Ja’Marr Chase, Cincinnati Bengals vs. Arizona Cardinals ($8,300) – Chase leads the NFL with 166 targets. He’s put up over 20 FPTS in three of the last four games but is always a threat to put up a 40-burger. I am bullish on Brissett being able to put up points for Arizona, which should keep the Bengals aggressive on offense. On defense, Arizona has allowed the ninth-highest EPA per dropback with 25 touchdowns. Arizona is 29th in pressure rate and the 26 sacks are tied for the third-fewest. This game has a total of 52.5, so points are expected to be scored.
Other Options – Jaxon Smith-Njigba ($8,600), Chris Olave ($7,200), Mike Evans ($6,500), Tee Higgins ($6,300)
Value
Adam Thielen, Pittsburgh Steelers at Cleveland Browns ($3,400) – Last week, Thielen was in on 43% of the snaps. That was the second-most for wide receivers. DK Metcalf led the way, but he’s out for this one, so there’s a very good chance Thielen sees an uptick in playing time. Thielen garnered four targets last week and finished with 8.9 FPTS. The ceiling is low, but Thielen could get peppered with short targets all game long and the price is cheap.
Other Options – Stefon Diggs ($5,800), Jakobi Meyers ($5,300), Michael Pittman Jr. ($4,900), Jack Bech ($3,700)
Tight End
Stud
Trey McBride, Arizona Cardinals at Cincinnati Bengals ($7,500) – McBride disappointed last week with only 6.7 FPTS. Atlanta did an excellent job of bracketing him, limiting him to four catches for 27 yards on eight targets. The beneficiary was the other tight end, Elijah Higgins. I am not foreseeing a replication of that strategy, especially since the Bengals have been the worst at defending the position all season long. It’s an excellent bounce-back spot for McBride in what could be a back-and-forth affair.
Other Options – Harold Fannin Jr. ($5,000), Tyler Warren ($4,400), Dallas Goedert ($4,300), Juwan Johnson ($4,200)
Value
Michael Mayer, Las Vegas Raiders vs. New York Giants ($2,500) – With Brock Bowers shut down for the remainder of the season, Mayer elevates to the top of the depth chart. Mayer was selected in the second round of the 2023 draft and runs a 4.7 40-yard dash at 6-foot-5 and 249 pounds, so he has pedigree and isn’t some scrub.
Other Options – Brenton Strange ($4,000), Chig Okonkwo ($3,300), Taysom Hill ($2,700), Elijah Higgins
Defense/Special Teams
Stud
Patriots DST at New York Jets ($3,900) – The Patriots aren’t elite in pressure rate, getting sacks or racking up turnovers, but the unit gets to face Brady Cook, a rookie who has thrown six interceptions and taken 17 sacks in only three appearances this season. The Patriots offense should have no issues putting up points, which could mean more dropbacks for Cook.
Other Options – Seahawks DST ($3,700), Jaguars DST ($3,400), Buccaneers DST ($3,100)
Value
Giants DST at Las Vegas Raiders ($2,900) – The Raiders could and should just pound Jeanty 50 times against a porous Giants rush defense, but Geno Smith will still likely be allowed to throw over 20 times in this one. And when Smith drops back to pass, bad things often happen. Smith is tied for the league-lead with 15 interceptions while the 52 sacks taken are the most.
Other Options – Browns DST ($2,500), Panthers DST ($2,100)
