Happy holidays! As a reward for landing on the nice list, we get to enjoy NFL football all day long on Thursday’s Christmas Day slate. The Denver Broncos wrap up the schedule with a game in Kansas City against the rival Chiefs, and the outlook remains primed for the visitors to score plenty of points. Skill position players could post some big outings against a depleted defense, so Courtland Sutton’s prop bets bring some appeal heading into this Thursday Night Football contest.
Check out some of the best Courtland Sutton prop bets on DraftKings Sportsbook for Broncos vs. Chiefs on a Christmas edition of TNF in Week 17.
Best Courtland Sutton prop bets on DraftKings Sportsbook
Courtland Sutton served as the Broncos’ top wideout last season as a then-rookie Bo Nix posted an impressive debut campaign. The veteran receiver’s play earned a much-deserved four-year, $92 million contract extension over the offseason. While younger players like Troy Franklin and Pat Bryant have eaten into Sutton’s target share some this year, he’s still posted quality numbers and remains the team’s leader in targets, receptions, receiving yards and receiving touchdowns. Among all NFL wideouts, the 30-year-old ranks 14th in targets (108), 15th in catches (69), 11th in yardage (972) and 10th in touchdowns (seven). Sutton undoubtedly remains a difference-making player, even despite a slow stretch of play around the midseason mark.
The Broncos’ matchup can’t get much better than this one. The Chiefs’ defense may rank 12th in passing yards allowed (204.5), but the unit falls 28th in opponent completion percentage (68.09%) and 22nd in opponent yards per pass (7.2). Kansas City is also 16th in defensive EPA/pass, but beyond the stats, there are even more impactful notes that boost the potential for a big day in the box score. Former All-Pro cornerback Trent McDuffie (knee) and fellow corner Jaylen Watson (groin) are out for the final two games after both landed on IR, meaning Denver’s weapons will match up against CB3 and CB4 at best. Nix may not be pressured all that much either with EDGE George Karlaftis (illness) questionable, while linebacker Nick Bolton (illness) is questionable as well.
On DraftKings Sportsbook, Sutton’s prop bet lines are set at O/U 4.5 receptions and 61.5 receiving yards with a longest catch of 23.5 yards. His odds to score an anytime touchdown are listed at +155.
As for the best prop bet I recommend in this spot, here’s a snippet or two from my Christmas must-starts article for the fantasy slate in which Sutton makes an appearance:
He’s scored a touchdown in three of those, and his workload appears more stable than ever with 10+ targets in three straight games heading into this one. Since the bye, Sutton’s 24.2% target share paces Broncos players and he has eight targets in the red zone, five more than the next-closest weapon at Nix’s disposal. Per PFF, Sutton averages the eighth-most YPRR against man coverage among wideouts at 2.88. The Chiefs deploy man coverage at the 10th-highest rate of any team on nearly 30% of defensive snaps.
Despite the concerns I have about game script with Kansas City starting QB3 Chris Oladokun and missing so many players on both sides of the ball (including star wideout Rashee Rice as well), I still like 6+ receptions for Sutton at +139 odds as well as over 61.5 receiving yards at -114. His target share has only improved over the last few games and Pat Bryant (concussion) is also out on Christmas, setting up another stable workload for the veteran wideout against cornerbacks who aren’t equipped to defend him.
You basically can’t go wrong in this spot, especially with Sutton recording at least 62 yards in nine of his 15 outings this season and each of his last four games as well. I lean toward the over on his yardage prop as a top pick as well as laddering that play up to 70+ yards for slightly better value, but if I had to throw in one more pick I feel really good about, it’s an anytime touchdown at +155 odds. Sutton’s 16 red-zone targets are tied for the most among Broncos wideouts and he sees a 34.8% target share inside the 20-yard line. Given the defensive matchup and the role, either of these prop picks look great in my book.
Best Bet: Courtland Sutton over 61.5 receiving yards (-114)
Slight Lean: Courtland Sutton anytime TD scorer (+155)
Click the odds of either bet to tail!
