Merry Christmas to all who celebrate and happy holidays to everyone out there! We’ve made it to Week 17 of the NFL regular season, which kicks off with three matchups on Thursday as part of the Christmas Day festivities.
We’ve finally made it to the final week of season-long formats with the championship round on deck. While this column leans toward the NFL DFS side of things, the same advice can apply to other formats as well — we just want to help you win your leagues. After crunching the numbers, we’ve got another three must-start players for your fantasy football contests. Whether a standout talent to build lineups around or an intriguing value with matchup and salary, these are guys who can smash and win the week. Let’s jump right in.
Set your DraftKings fantasy football lineups here: NFL $2.25M Merry Millionaire [$1M to 1st] (Thu)
QB Bo Nix, Broncos @ Chiefs ($6,000)
For those who keep up with my weekly columns for Sunday slates — I hate to tell you this, but there’s no Drake Maye or Jacoby Brissett in the player pool. However, we do have Bo Nix, who’s playing some of his best football at the moment. The Broncos’ quarterback averages 19.9 FPPG and has flashed both a steady floor with a high ceiling in the 30+ range. He’s thrown for 300+ yards in three of his last four games with six touchdowns to two interceptions over that span, also rushing for one additional score. In Week 11 against Kansas City, Nix completed 64.9% of his throws for 295 yards but was held without a touchdown on the day.
The outlook looks better for the rematch with former All-Pro cornerback listed as a DNP on the first two days of practice for the Chiefs. The defense as a whole sits 22nd in opponent yards per pass and fourth-worst in opponent completion percentage, as well as 16th in defensive EPA/pass. In other words, it’s wheels up for the Denver offense in this one against a deflated opponent with no postseason hopes and a third-string quarterback under center. Nix should be at the center of the scoring and brings slight value with a good matchup.
RB Javonte Williams, Cowboys @ Commanders ($6,300)
The matchups for running backs this week are interesting since the Broncos’ rush defense is elite and at least in theory, the Vikings, Lions and Chiefs are all at least solid against the run as well. Even the Cowboys’ defense has shown some improvement in that regard as well! There are some interesting names, but Javonte Williams takes the cake for me since he sees a bell-cow share of touches in a strong offense and faces a weak defense on Thursday. The Dallas RB averages 16.0 FPPG this season with 76.5 rushing yards per game, a sizable receiving role and 12 touchdowns to his name.
I’m on Williams for more than those reasons, though. The opposing Commanders allow an average of 26.9 points (27th) and 141.0 rushing yards (29th) per game while giving up 4.8 YPC (28th). Predictably, Washington also falls 28th in defensive rush EPA with 16 rushing touchdowns allowed, tied for sixth-most. Watch for this Cowboys offense to move the ball at will on the road here and pour on a deluge of points, some of which almost certainly come via Williams. The only issue here is that he’s questionable due to a neck issue, but if he suits up, he’s a must-start option.
Courtland Sutton, Broncos @ Chiefs ($6,000)
Since we’re looking toward Bo Nix at quarterback, what other choice do we have besides pairing him with his top wideout? Courtland Sutton went through a bit of a rough patch around the midseason mark but still averages 14.4 FPPG overall. The best news? He’s on a bit of a heater in recent weeks. Sutton has totals of 17.2, 12.2, 27.3 and 20.6 DKFP over his last four games with at least five catches and 62 yards in all four contests. He’s scored a touchdown in three of those, and his workload appears more stable than ever with 10+ targets in three straight games heading into this one. Since the bye, Sutton’s 24.2% target share paces Broncos players and he has eight targets in the red zone, five more than the next-closest weapon at Nix’s disposal.
Per PFF, Sutton averages the eighth-most YPRR against man coverage among wideouts at 2.88. The Chiefs deploy man coverage at the 10th-highest rate of any team on nearly 30% of defensive snaps. That’s a recipe for success, but if McDuffie doesn’t play as mentioned earlier, the situation looks even more favorable for the receiver he would’ve matched up plenty of times against. To add to that, cornerback Jaylen Watson also logged DNP sessions on Monday and Tuesday with a groin issue, potentially leaving Kansas City without another of its top defensive backs. At a salary of $6,000, Sutton brings floor and ceiling as an excellent DFS play on Christmas Day.
