These are my picks to win every Week 17 NFL game straight-up, tiered by confidence level and ranked within each tier.
You can bet on any of these games on DraftKings Sportsbook.
NFL Week 17 Confidence Picks
High Confidence
Broncos over Chiefs
The Broncos have finally taken the crown from the Chiefs in the AFC West. Kansas City is not only eliminated from postseason contention, but it is on its third-string quarterback, Chris Oladokun. Oladokun has never started an NFL game before, and he is in for a tough test against a good Broncos defense. This Broncos team is built to dominate against teams without a high-level offense. They are close to clinching the AFC West and should handle business here.
Patriots over Jets
The Patriots just need wins over the Jets and Dolphins the next two weeks to clinch the AFC East. After their fantastic win over the Ravens last week, the team should be riding high and ready to finish the season strong. The Jets were a healthier, more competitive team when these teams faced off earlier this season. Despite that, the Patriots still won the game by 13 points. Without Sauce Gardner, the Jets don’t have the defense to stop the Patriots’ passing attack. Offensively, the Jets are inept with Brady Cook. The Patriots should control the game and get the win.
Rams over Falcons
The Rams are coming off a tough loss to the Seahawks, which may have cost them the NFC West. However, they should bounce back strong against the Falcons. The Rams will get pressure on Kirk Cousins, and Cousins has struggled this season when he doesn’t have time to throw. Meanwhile, the Rams’ offense should completely control the game. Los Angeles could still get back into contention for the NFC West, and even securing the five seed as the top wild card team could get them a much better first-round matchup.
Seahawks over Panthers
The Seahawks control their own destiny to win the NFC West. The Panthers have had a great season and control their path to the NFC South title. However, Seattle should be able to win this one. The Seahawks are playing great football down the stretch and it will take a perfect game for the Panthers to win. Seattle’s defense should shut down Bryce Young’s passing attack, and the Panthers don’t have an elite pass rush to give Sam Darnold issues. This is a massive game for both teams, but the Seahawks are on another level compared to Carolina.
Jaguars over Colts
The Jaguars can clinch the AFC South this weekend with a win and a Texans loss to the Chargers. It should be a maximum effort from the Jaguars with so much on the line. The Jaguars have dominated the Colts in recent years. The Jaguars are 17-3-1 ATS in their last 21 games against the Colts. Jacksonville also has a much better team at the moment. Philip Rivers can’t generate enough explosive plays to make this a scary passing offense to face. Meanwhile, the Jaguars should be able to move the ball against a Colts defense that is really struggling.
Medium Confidence
Bengals over Cardinals
The Bengals and Cardinals face off in a battle of two teams that have not had a very good season. However, the Bengals are still operating at somewhat full power, while the Cardinals have been riddled with injuries all season. Cincinnati should be able to move the ball with ease with Joe Burrow feeding his high-end weapons. This could turn into a shootout, and if that happens, it favors the Bengals’ superior offense.
Lions over Vikings
The Lions are fighting to keep their season alive on Christmas Day. They can still chase down the Jordan Love-less Packers for a playoff spot if they win out and get some help. The Vikings have won three straight games, but those have come against three of the NFL’s worst defenses, the Giants, Commanders and Cowboys. Minnesota will also now be without J.J. McCarthy once again. Max Brosmer was horrific in his one start this season and the Lions’ defense should get after him. Detroit should score enough to win and live to see another day in the NFC playoff race.
Cowboys over Commanders
The Cowboys face the Commanders in an NFC East rivalry game. These have been two of the worst defenses in the NFL this season, but the offensive comparison is not close. Dallas has one of the most explosive offenses in the NFL, while Washington has been inconsistent on that side of the ball. If this game turns into a shootout, the Cowboys have way more firepower. They should be able to hit a few explosive plays and get the win over the Commanders.
Steelers over Browns
The Steelers face off against the Browns in another divisional battle. The Steelers can clinch the AFC North with a win over the Browns this week. Pittsburgh is playing some of its best football of the season as of late. The Steelers’ defense should get pressure on Shedeur Sanders and make his life difficult. Without Quinshon Judkins, the Browns will not have the well-balanced running game that made things easier for Sanders. Offensively, Aaron Rodgers is experienced enough to get the ball out quickly and avoid the dangerous Browns pass rush. That should result in a win for the Steelers and an AFC North title.
Buccaneers over Dolphins
The Buccaneers took a tough loss to the Panthers last week, but they can get right back into the division title picture this week. The Panthers have a tough matchup against the Seahawks. If Carolina loses and the Buccaneers beat the Dolphins, Tampa Bay will be back atop the NFC South. Despite its struggles, all can be redeemed with a win this week. If Baker Mayfield can provide any sort of steady play, Tampa Bay should be able to get the win over a Dolphins team that has been dominated each of the past two weeks.
49ers over Bears
The 49ers and Bears face off in one of the biggest games of the weekend. There are big playoff implications for both teams, and the 49ers have the essential home-field advantage. Not needing to go play this game in cold Chicago weather is a big advantage for the 49ers. Brock Purdy and the 49ers’ offense have been on fire the past few weeks, including a 48-point performance last week. They should be able to move the ball against the Chicago defense and force the Bears to try to keep up. The Bears have pulled off some incredible late-game wins this season, but the 49ers should handle business in this game.
Coin-Flip Games
Bills over Eagles
The Bills are still alive in the AFC East race if the Patriots drop one of their final two games. Buffalo should keep its foot on the gas and try to keep pressure on New England. Both of these teams have been a bit up and down this season, but Buffalo has overall been sharper, especially on offense. The Eagles have won back-to-back games against very bad teams, but prior to that, they had lost three straight games. The Bills will be more of a tougher test for the Eagles, and Josh Allen should make the winning plays in what should be a tight game.
Saints over Titans
The Saints have been playing great over the past few weeks. Tyler Shough has played really well at quarterback and the New Orleans defense has been playing better. New Orleans has now won three straight games, including over the Panthers and Buccaneers. The Titans finally got a nice win over the Chiefs, but that was against a dying team that had to go to its third-string quarterback. The Saints, on the other hand, are ascending and trying to finish the season strong. Shough should keep up his strong play and get the win.
Texans over Chargers
Both of these teams are still jockeying for playoff position, making this one of the better games of the weekend. It should be a good battle, but the Texans should get the win. These teams are very similar, but Houston is a better version of the Chargers. Both teams have tough defenses, but Houston’s defense is the best in the NFL. Also, looking at the past few weeks, the Texans have been better on offense as well. The Texans have won seven straight games and should keep the momentum going by getting a big win over the Chargers.
Ravens over Packers
The Ravens and Packers face off in a strange matchup on Saturday night. This was supposed to be one of the best games of the NFL season, with both teams fighting for playoff positioning. However, both teams are likely to be without their starting quarterback. Lamar Jackson is expected to miss the game, while the Packers could be without both Jordan Love and Malik Willis. If the Packers are forced to go to a third-string quarterback, that makes life really difficult for them. At least Tyler Huntley has a lot of experience in this offense for Baltimore. It’s hard to be too confident about either team with the quarterback uncertainty, but if it’s Huntley against a third-string quarterback, the Ravens should get the win.
Giants over Raiders
These are two of the worst teams in the league, but the Giants have had a few more bright spots to point to. Jaxson Dart is still trying to become more consistent at quarterback and learn how to win games. Compared to a Raiders team that has been a complete disaster, the Giants are trying to get a young group moving in the right direction. It’s hard to trust either of these teams, but the Giants will likely have a bit more motivation to end the season strong and pick up a win over the Raiders.
