Week 17 of the NFL regular season arrives to the sound of jingle bells and reindeer hooves. We have a special three-game Thursday slate on Christmas Day which sees a trio of divisional matchups across the schedule. The action kicks off with Cowboys vs. Commanders at 1 p.m. EST before the Lions and Vikings duel in the afternoon window. Finally, the Broncos face the Chiefs on Thursday Night Football to cap off the holiday festivities.
Wherever you are and however, you celebrate, it’s time to lock in on one of the most popular betting markets out there. Here are the top anytime TD scorer picks on DraftKings Sportsbook for the Week 17 Christmas Day slate.
George Pickens (+125) at Washington Commanders
The opening matchup of the day doesn’t have any postseason implications, but it does pit a high-flying Cowboys offense against one of the NFL’s worst defensive units. The Commanders can’t stop anyone, ranking third-worst in total EPA on defense and conceding 3.1 touchdowns per game, also third-worst. If their opponents get the ball into the red zone, there’s a roughly 66.67% chance points will be scored. Well, Dallas’ offense posts 3.0 touchdowns per game, good for the league’s eight-best mark, and Dak Prescott has thrown the third-most TDs of any quarterback with 28 on the campaign.
This is clearly a matchup in which the Cowboys’ best red-zone threat can dominate. Wideout George Pickens’ 21 targets inside the 20-yard line are the third-most at his position and his nine touchdowns are the fourth-most of any player in the NFL. He can score in a variety of ways, whether a contested catch in short-yardage situations or via the long ball, and the Commanders’ cornerbacks will find themselves entirely outmatched against the 6-foot-3 receiver. Washington ranks 26th in passing yards allowed per game with 30 passing touchdowns conceded on the campaign, more than all but two other teams (including the Cowboys themselves). Between his role and the matchup, Pickens should dominate this contest and find the end zone at least once. For what it’s worth, he hauled in two touchdowns on Christmas Day in 2023 as well!
Jameson Williams (+180) at Minnesota Vikings
Jameson Williams began the season in sluggish fashion after signing a three-year, $80 million contract extension. However, he’s come online since the midway point of Week 9 with 717 receiving yards and five touchdowns while seeing 7.6 targets per game. His yardage mark places him fourth among all wide receivers over that span and the increased target share means the Lions are placing a renewed focus on putting the ball in the fourth-year talent’s hands. Last time he played against the Vikings, Williams hauled in four of his six targets for 66 yards and a score. With Amon-Ra St. Brown nursing a knee injury in practice leading up to Thursday’s game, there’s a chance he’s not 100% healthy or misses this outing entirely. In either case, that could mean additional work for his teammates, in which case Williams is the main benefeciary.
The only yellow flag involved in this anytime touchdown pick is that Minnesota’s 14 passing scores allowed are the second-fewest of any team in the NFL. That’s not reason to avoid it entirely though, especially with Detroit playing for the postseason. With just a 6% chance of making the playoffs per The Athletic, the Lions will turn to every available playmaker in order to keep their season alive. Williams’ game-breaking speed gives him as good a case as anyone to find the end zone, plus he occasionally sees some creative usage via rush attempts as well. Plus odds, no problem.
Broncos D/ST (+475) at Kansas City Chiefs
I actually wrote this pick in the anytime touchdown article for the Broncos vs. Chiefs game, but I like it so much I’m giving it another shout here as an excellent long-shot play. Yes, you’re taking on some risk by banking on a fumble, interception or special-teams return to score six on Thursday Night Football, but the conditions are ripe for one of those first two to occur. Kansas City is entirely deflated without Patrick Mahomes or Gardner Minshew at quarterback after both sustained knee injures over the last two games. That leaves Chris Oladokun under center for the Chiefs, placing the QB3 under pressure against one of the NFL’s elite defensive teams.
As I wrote in that aforementioned TNF anytime touchdown article:
Against a Denver pass rush with a league-leading 63 sacks, Oladokun will likely be pressured throughout the day and forced into making some mistakes. Whether a fumble return or a pick-six to reigning DPOY Pat Surtain II, Riley Moss or Talanoa Hufanga, there should be an opportunity or two for the Broncos’ defense to score. The +500 odds are worth a sprinkle.
It’s hard to overstate how difficult a matchup this is for Oladokun and the Chiefs, who have a team total of 10.5 points on DraftKings Sportsbook. This can and will turn into a very ugly game for the home team, so this feels like prime value for a top D/ST pick against a signal-caller who spent most of his career on the practice squad thus far.
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Long Shot Anytime TD Scorers for Christmas Day Week 17
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