In Week 18 last season, the Detroit Lions and the Minnesota Vikings faced off in what was effectively a playoff game, with the winner finishing as the No. 1 seed in the NFC and the loser dropping to fifth and having to play a road game against the Los Angeles Rams. It was Detroit who went on to win that game and earn the bye, although both teams lost in their postseason debuts.
When the teams face off for a Christmas Day matinee at 4:30 p.m. ET at U.S. Bank Stadium, the situation is much different: the Lions are just 8-7 and would be eliminated from postseason contention with a defeat against the Vikings. Minnesota, meanwhile, has already been eliminated at 7-8 and will be without quarterback J.J. McCarthy ($13,800 CP). Instead, Max Brosmer ($12,300 CP) will start his second game of the season.
Detroit is a 7.5-point favorite at DraftKings Sportsbook, with the point total set to 43.5. The Lions are -360 on the Moneyline, and the Vikings are +285.
DraftKings is offering a Showdown contest for the marquee clash with $300,000 in total prize money. Below, I’ve laid out my strategy, with two Captain’s Picks, two FLEX options, and one fade.
Set your DraftKings fantasy football lineups here: NFL $300K Showdown Special [$100K to 1st] (DET @ MIN).
SHOWDOWN STRATEGY
Captain’s Picks
Jahmyr Gibbs ($17,100 CP) – Gibbs is the most expensive player on the slate, but sometimes, the simplest solution is the best solution. The 23-year-old had an awful game on the ground against the Pittsburgh Steelers in Week 16 (seven rushes for two yards), but he made up for it by hauling in 10 catches for 66 yards and a score (22.8 FPTS). All in all, he’s recorded 20 or more FPTS in five of his last seven games and six of his last nine. He’s become even more indispensable to Detroit’s offense over the last two weeks, appearing in more than 80% of the team’s snaps in each game. Plus, David Montgomery ($8,100 CP) was ill and did not practice on Tuesday.
Minnesota has allowed the 14th-fewest FPTS per game to opposing running backs, but it did allow 91 yards and a score (15.1 FPTS) in Week 15 against the Dallas Cowboys’ Javonte Williams, who isn’t a franchise-changing star like Gibbs. In fact, the Vikings have allowed the sixth-most rushing yards to running backs, and while they’ve been the league’s best team against the position through the air, that’s not his entire game. Plus, they’ve missed the ninth-most tackles, and Gibbs has been one of the league’s best tackle-breakers both as a runner and a receiver.
Aaron Jones Sr. ($12,900 CP) – Both Minnesota running backs briefly left the team’s Week 16 win over the New York Giants with ankle injuries, but while Jordan Mason ($11,400 CP) never re-entered and appears likely to miss Thursday’s game, Jones finished the game and ended up with 21 carries and 85 yards (11.3 FPTS). He’s clearly been the junior partner of the two — Mason has more yards per carry and a higher rushing success rate — but Jones has a long track record of NFL success and shouldn’t miss a beat in a larger role. Plus, after Brosmer’s disastrous four-interception (0.9-FPT) debut, it seems rather unlikely that he’d be asked to throw the ball 30 times again.
It’s not like the Lions’ run defense has been that good. Though they’ve allowed the ninth-fewest FPTS per game to opposing running backs, that’s largely been a matter of volume: opponents have handed it off the 11th-fewest times. On a per-play basis, teams have been somewhat effective, earning the 18th-most yards per attempt and scoring the 14th-most touchdowns. Plus, Detroit has run zone coverage more frequently than man, and three-fourths of Jones’ targets (and 125 of his 163 receiving yards) have come against zone. Brosmer has also been more effective than either McCarthy or Carson Wentz ($9,000 CP) on screen plays, so it could be an opportunity to mesh the quarterback’s strength with his receiver’s.
FLEX Plays
Jordan Addison ($7,000) – Though Addison has had slow production the last few weeks, I just like his value better than that of Justin Jefferson ($9,600), who the Lions will focus all of their energy on slowing down. Sure, he’s only recorded double-digit FPTS twice in the last two months, but Jefferson has only done so thrice in the same span and his DFS salary is much higher. On a per-play basis, Addison has been a more explosive threat than Jefferson, averaging more yards per catch, a higher success rate, and more receiving touchdowns. He also had five catches for 36 yards (8.6 FPTS) in Brosmer’s first start, while Jefferson had only two catches for four yards (2.4 FPTS). Addison has a far higher catch rate than Jefferson on throws within 10 yards of the line of scrimmage, where Brosmer has been both most prolific and most effective.
Either wideout should be a strong fantasy play against an extremely banged-up Detroit secondary that lost both of its starting safeties, Brian Branch and Kerby Joseph, to season-ending injuries. All in all, the Lions have given up the second-most FPTS per game to opposing wide receivers, including the third-most receiving yards and the second-most touchdowns. They also get pressure at merely an average rate, which should allow time for Brosmer to go through his progressions and find a deeper target. Plus, Detroit’s top outside corner — Rock Ya-Sin — has posted the 37th-best coverage grades among 110 qualified corners, but his partner D.J. Reed ranks 65th in the same category.
Isaac TeSlaa ($3,400) – For a true budget option (since picking Gibbs as Captain is expensive), the boom-or-bust TeSlaa is a worthwhile investment. Sure, the 23-year-old only has 12 career catches to his name, but five of them have gone for touchdowns, and he just seems to have a knack for difficult catches. He’s coming off of the best all-around game of his career, snagging four catches for 52 yards and a touchdown (15.2 FPTS), and he’s appeared in a majority of the Lions’ offensive snaps in each of the past four weeks, recording 10 or more FPTS thrice. Some advanced numbers aren’t so kind to him — by Pro Football Focus’ grades, he ranks just 88th of 131 qualified receivers — but Jared Goff ($10,600) has a 119.7 passer rating when throwing to him, which is good enough for me. Amon-Ra St. Brown ($10,800) was also limited in practice on Tuesday.
The Vikings have allowed the fewest FPTS per game to wideouts, but they’ve also played some pretty mediocre quarterbacks lately: Jayden Daniels and Marcus Mariota in Week 14 and Jaxson Dart in Week 16. The last time they played a top-end quarterback, they allowed Dak Prescott to throw for 294 yards in Week 15, and his top receiver, CeeDee Lamb, accumulated 111 yards on six catches (20.1 FPTS). Minnesota is also somewhat of a one-man show: while top cornerback Isaiah Rodgers ranks a solid 20th by PFF’s coverage grades, its second-best outside cornerback is Byron Murphy Jr., who ranks just 84th.
Fades
Justin Jefferson ($9,600) – At this price point, I just can’t trust Jefferson, given that last week’s six-catch, 85-yard (14.5-FPT) performance was his first double-digit effort since Week 11. All but two of those catches and 28 of those yards came in the first half, prior to McCarthy’s injury. It’s hard to imagine him performing quite as badly as he did in his first game with Brosmer at quarterback, but he’s been best in the intermediate zones and Brosmer didn’t have a single completion between 10 and 20 yards beyond the line of scrimmage. He’s also been more effective on throws down the right sideline than the left sideline, and Brosmer was better on throws down the left sideline in his debut.
With Kevin O’Connell likely to call a fairly conservative game for Brosmer, there are only so many targets to go around, and it’s simply a more appealing option for Brosmer to throw to Addison against Reed than it is for him to throw to Jefferson against Ya-Sin. Ya-Sin has limited opposing quarterbacks to a 62.5 passer rating or worse in five of his last six games, and he hasn’t allowed a touchdown since Week 5. He’s allowed opponents to complete more than half of their passes just once since Week 5, with the lone exception coming against Puka Nacua, PFF’s No. 1-rated receiver.
THE OUTCOME
Even though the Vikings have won three straight games and the Lions have lost three of their last four, I simply don’t trust Brosmer to lead his team to a win, especially since Minnesota is already down one of its two running backs. In theory, this Detroit secondary is extremely gettable, so this weak Vikings passing game should be a respite.
The Lions’ defensive issues are very real, but their offense should be just good enough to lead them to a win. Gibbs should be the best player on either team, and even if Rodgers can somewhat stymie St. Brown, Jameson Williams ($9,800), Kalif Raymond ($3,600), and TeSlaa are pretty strong depth options.
