The Mavericks are hosting the Nuggets on Tuesday. On DraftKings Sportsbook, Denver is favored by 6.5 points and this game carries a total of 235.5 points.
Below, I break down the matchup and provide a pick for the game.
Mavericks vs. Nuggets preview, prediction
The Nuggets and Mavericks are both playing their second game in two nights. Last night, Dallas lost 119-113 to the Pelicans in New Orleans, while Denver was at home and blew out the Jazz 135-122, which resulted in all of the Nuggets’ starters seeing less than 30 minutes of work.
Denver has now won eight of its last 10 and the club is 21-7 this season. The Nuggets rank second in net rating, trailing only the defending champion Thunder. Denver leads the NBA in offensive rating by a solid margin and very few offenses can keep pace with the Nuggets on that side of the ball, with Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray both having tremendous seasons.
Jokic is averaging a massive triple-double 28.9 points, 12.1 rebounds and 10.8 assists per game, and Murray is averaging 24.9 PPG on 50% shooting, both of which are career-highs. Denver’s only flaw is that the team is susceptible on defense with Aaron Gordon (hamstring) sidelined. The forward has missed 13 games in a row and with him out, the Nuggets rank 26th in defensive rating.
The Mavericks are a complete opposite type of team, as they rank seventh in defensive rating and 28th in offensive rating. Overall, Dallas is 11-19 and ranks 20th in net rating. Anthony Davis is healthy again after dealing with a calf injury to start the season, scoring at least 24 points in four of his last five, including a 37-point and 17-rebound double-double vs. the Pelicans last night.
Davis has only missed two of the Mavericks’ last 11 games and there is a chance he rests tonight after playing Tuesday. However, the Nuggets only being a 6.5-point favorite for this matchup suggests the oddsmakers expect Davis to play. Dallas desperately needs the big man’s offense if the team wants to keep up with the Nuggets tonight.
These clubs recently met on Dec. 1 and Davis led the Mavericks to a 131-121 win behind a team-high 32 points. This is without a doubt one of Dallas’ best wins of the season and while another victory over Denver tonight will be difficult for the Mavericks, they should be able to keep this game tight if Davis suits up. In the event Davis sits, Cooper Flagg will be the focal point of Dallas’ offense, as with Davis off the floor this season, Flagg’s usage rises 1.5 percentage points to 25.2%.
Mavericks vs. Nuggets pick, best bet
The Nuggets should get revenge tonight with a win after losing to the Maverick earlier this month. Denver -6.5 is a solid play, but I prefer to attack the Nuggets -1.5 for the first quarter.
When these two clubs met earlier this month, the Nuggets won the first quarter 41-27 despite losing the game and for the season, Denver is 19-9-0 ATS in the first quarter, which is the second-best record in the NBA.
