The Indianapolis Colts will host the San Francisco 49ers to close out Week 16 in the Monday Night Football matchup.
Philip Rivers’ return has been one of the biggest stories in sports, with the 44-year-old stepping out of retirement to suit up for the Colts. Despite the nearly five-year gap from when he last played, Rivers looked respectable in his debut. Indianapolis has dropped four consecutive games to drop to 8-6 and needs a strong finish to the season with help from some other teams to qualify for the postseason.
Looking at the odds for tonight, the 49ers enter as 5.5-point favorites and hold -268 Moneyline odds on DraftKings Sportsbook. The Colts are +215 underdogs with the game total set at 45.5 points.
There are numerous ways to get involved in the action beyond backing a side or total. This article will look at my top Philip Rivers prop bets ahead of tonight’s Week 16 Monday Night Football matchup.
Best Philip Rivers Prop Bets on DraftKings Sportsbook
Philip Rivers Longest Completion Under 26.5 Yards (-110)
In his first game back, Philip Rivers completed 18 of his 27 pass attempts for 120 yards, one touchdown, and one interception. He showed a level of zip on the ball that was above reasonable expectations given the five-year layoff, but there should be questions about whether the Colts have any ability to push the ball down the field for deep throws moving forward. Rivers’ longest pass went for 17 yards last week. He attempted two passes beyond 20 yards and had just four completions exceeding 10 yards. His lone pass attempt beyond 25 yards resulted in the interception to cement the loss.
The 49ers’ defensive unit is not as strong as we are accustomed to seeing. They rank 11th in points allowed, 18th in total yards given up, 23rd in total passing yards allowed, and 21st in net yards per pass attempt. Despite the weakness in pass defense, Indianapolis will be comfortable sticking to the usual game plan of leaning on Jonathan Taylor at a high rate and simply playing within Rivers’ skillset.
Rivers got the ball out of his hands quickly in the previous game, averaging just 4.7 air yards per target and a 2.36-second average time to throw. This was the ninth-quickest rate of any quarterback in a game this season. San Francisco has done a nice job limiting yards after the catch, so it would likely take a big play from one of the Colts’ wide receivers after the catch to reach this type of yardage. Count on the Colts to remain comfortable attacking near the line of scrimmage and for the days of Rivers airing the ball out over the top to stay in the past decade.
Philip Rivers Over 18.5 Completions (+105)
While the outlook of Rivers raking up major yardage is difficult to get behind, this does not mean he is entirely ineffective as a passer. He completed 18 of his 27 pass attempts in his first game back while kicking off the rust of his retirement. This tendency to attack near the line of scrimmage allows him to stack up completions, which will continue to be the plan of attack tonight.
Even more notable, the Colts enter the matchup as 5.5-point underdogs. Indianapolis will do its best to control the pace of play, but the odds indicate the likelihood of needing to play from behind. This will only force Rivers to air the ball out more. The Colts’ playoff outlook has taken a significant hit, and Rivers will need to give everything he has left in the tank to keep the postseason window open.
San Francisco’s defense does not carry its typical level of bite and has been vulnerable against the pass this year. The unit ranks 23rd in passing yards allowed, 26th in passing touchdowns conceded, and 21st in net yards per pass attempt. Jacoby Brissett lit them up for 47 completions and 452 passing yards a month ago, and opposing quarterbacks have completed over 18.5 passes in nine of the 14 games this year.
It may not be in the most aesthetically pleasing fashion, but count on Rivers to stack up short passes throughout this matchup. Between the defensive matchup and expected game script, there is a clear pathway to the 44-year-old completing over 18.5 attempts in his second game back in the NFL.
