Week 16 of the NFL slate will conclude with a Monday Night matchup between the San Francisco 49ers and the Indianapolis Colts. This is an important matchup for both teams from a playoff perspective.
The Colts were red-hot out of the gates this season, but have dropped to 8-6, and will need a win and some help moving forward to get in the playoffs. The Daniel Jones injury changed the season’s outlook after he found his NFL footing, and they have turned to 44-year-old Phillip Rivers at the quarterback spot.
San Francisco has clinched a playoff opportunity with their 10-4 record, but is still looking to climb the standings. They currently sit in third place in the NFC West with the Seahawks and Rams ahead of them.
Looking at the odds for the matchup, the 49ers enter as 5.5-point favorites and hold -258 odds on the Moneyline on DraftKings Sportsbook. The Colts hold +210 odds of getting the outright victory, with the game total set at 45.5 points.
There are plenty of ways to get involved in the action beyond just backing a side. This article will look at my three favorite prop bets on DraftKings Sportsbook for the Week 16 Monday Night Football matchup between the 49ers and Colts.
49ers at Colts Best Prop Bets
Josh Downs Over 25.5 Receiving Yards (-114)
It has been a bit of a down season for Josh Downs, who has pulled in 47 receptions for 406 yards and four touchdowns on the year. He has not tallied more than 57 receiving yards in a game this season, but has had over 25.5 receiving yards in seven of the 13 games. Even more encouraging, there looked to be a strong trust from Philip Rivers in his first start. While he was limited to 13 yards, Downs was targeted five times and pulled in three receptions. He has been targeted at least five times in each of the past four weeks.
The outlook will be friendlier against the 49ers’ defense. San Francisco enters this week ranking 11th in points allowed and 18th in yards given up. They are 23rd in passing yards allowed, 21st in net yards per pass attempt, and 26th in passing touchdowns conceded. The 49ers lean on a zone-heavy scheme, which makes them vulnerable to slot receivers like Downs.
The Colts are 5.5-point underdogs in this matchup, and if they are forced to play from behind, it will only increase the need to pass the ball. Phillip Rivers shook off some rust last week and looked adequate in the quarterback role. Expect him to be a bit more comfortable in his second week back and for him to need to air the ball out at a more frequent rate. Count on Downs continuing to be involved and have success finding soft spots in the 49ers’ zone. Look for him to record over 25.5 receiving yards for the eighth time this season and be right near the top of Rivers’ progressions throughout.
George Kittle Over 67.5 Receiving Yards (-113)
Six-time Pro Bowl tight end George Kittle has also had a statistically down season, largely driven by the injuries at the quarterback position and to Kittle directly. Across the nine games he has played, Kittle has tallied 45 receptions for 484 yards and six touchdowns. He is averaging just 53.8 receiving yards per game, but has tallied over 67 yards in each of the past five games.
This is a friendly matchup against the Colts’ defense. Indianapolis ranks 13th in points allowed and 22nd in yards conceded this year. They are 30th in passing yards allowed and are particularly susceptible to opposing tight ends. The Colts are allowing 66.3 receiving yards per game to opposing tight ends, which is the fifth-most in the league.
Kittle is near the top of the list of most talented tight ends in the league and has a clear role in the 49ers’ attack. He has been targeted 30 times in the four games since Brock Purdy returned and has four or more receptions in all but one game this season. Expect San Francisco’s weak wide receiver options to work in Kittle’s favor and for him to be heavily involved throughout. Count on the 49ers’ star tight end to see plenty of targets sent his direction and record over 67.5 receiving yards for the fourth time this season in what is one of his friendliest matchups of the year.
Jonathan Taylor Over 97.5 Rushing Yards (-114)
While plenty of conversation will be surrounding the quarterback outlook, it should be made clear that the Colts’ offense revolves around Jonathan Taylor. The former Offensive Player of the Year leads the league with 16 rushing touchdowns, along with 1,443 yards on the ground. Taylor is averaging 103.1 rushing yards per game and has tallied over 97.5 rushing yards in five games this season. He also has had 21 or more carries in each of his last three games and is averaging 23 rush attempts per game across his past five.
San Francisco has a reputation as a defense-first team, but has not lived up to this. They rank 18th in net yards per rush attempt, 12th in rushing yards allowed, and 21st in EPA per rush play. This has become increasingly concerning as the season has progressed. Tony Pollard ripped off 104 rushing yards against the 49ers last week, and Quinshon Judkins tallied 91 yards on the ground the week before.
Taylor is coming off a matchup with the Seahawks last week, who rank third in the league in rushing yards allowed, and first in EPA per rush play and net yards per rush attempt. He still managed to pick up 87 yards on 25 carries and will see a similar level of workload tonight with Rivers under center. Count on Taylor seeing 20+ carries again and for there to be a clear path to over 97.5 rushing yards against a vulnerable opponent.
