The Pelicans are hosting the Mavericks on Monday. On DraftKings Sportsbook, New Orleans is favored by 1.5 points and this game carries a total of 241.5 points.
Below, I break down the matchup and provide a pick for the game.
Pelicans vs. Mavericks preview, prediction
While the Pelicans sit at the bottom of the Western Conference at 7-22, the team all of the sudden has won four games in a row, giving them the second-longest active winning streak in the NBA. These wins have come against the Trail Blazers, Bulls, Rockets and Pacers, in that order. The victory over Houston is the most notable, not just because the Rockets are 17-9 and rank second in net rating this season, but also because New Orleans erased a 25-point deficit to win this game.
During this four-game stretch, the Pelicans impressively rank fourth in the NBA in net rating. They have been shooting and rebounding very well, and Zion Williamson being healthy again has been a major factor. The former No. 1 pick has played in each of the last three games for New Orleans and the team has brought him off the bench, which has resulted in 18.9 PPG for Williamson.
The forward being a reserve likely isn’t a long-term plan, but with the Pelicans thriving right now and Williamson playing well in the role, he should continue to come off the bench tonight. Williamson being healthy again is huge for New Orleans on both ends of the floor, and with him back in the picture, the Pelicans’ roster is solid, with Trey Murphy, Saddiq Bey, Jordan Poole and Derik Queen to complement Williamson.
New Orleans is playing its best basketball of the season right now and on the other side of this matchup, the Mavericks are also trending up. Dallas is only 11-18 for the season, but it has won three of its last five games, including wins over the Pistons and Rockets. Cooper Flagg (illness) is questionable to play tonight, but the rookie was present at shootaround, which is a strong indicator that he will suit up.
Flagg has been lighting it up as a scorer recently, averaging 27.8 PPG in his last four. While Flagg has lived up to the hype on offense, he has been a defensive liability for this strong defensive Mavericks team. With Flagg on the floor this season, Dallas’ defensive rating is a whopping 10.0 points worse than with him off and as a result, he ranks dead last in plus/minus for the team.
Flagg has and will continue to improve on that side of the ball as the season progresses, but with him dealing with an illness tonight, it wouldn’t be shocking to see the rookie rusty on both ends of the floor. Anthony Davis is healthy again for the Mavericks and playing well, with three 20-point double-doubles in his last four, and this is a revenge situation for him, facing his original team in the Pelicans on their home floor. When he was with the Lakers, Davis scored 30+ points in each of his last two visits to New Orleans and the Mavericks will need another big effort from him tonight if they want to take down the surging Pelicans.
Pelicans vs. Mavericks pick, best bet
While the Mavericks are playing solid right now, the Pelicans have been better as of late and New Orleans should get a win tonight on its home floor.
No team in the NBA has been better than the Pelicans at covering this season, with a 18-10-2 ATS record and they are also 2-0 ATS when favored at home. New Orleans should be favored by more than 1.5 points and the club is a great bet to cover this line at this +100 price.
